EMA indicator issues warning, Christmas ETH exchange net inflow hits a new annual high

According to on-chain data platform CryptoQuant’s monitoring, Binance recorded an abnormally high ETH net inflow during the Christmas period (late December), with a single inflow exceeding 140,000 ETH, setting this year’s record. Such large-scale, concentrated capital inflows usually indicate that investors are actively preparing to sell spot holdings and get ready for potential reduction of positions. Notably, after this wave of net inflow, ETH continued to maintain a positive net inflow status, further reinforcing market expectations of selling pressure.

EMA Indicator Turns Short-term Selling Signal Continues to Warm Up

The key technical clue comes from the EMA indicator performance within the net inflow metrics. Observing recent trends, EMA(7) and EMA(14) are both trending upward, while the long-term reference line SMA(30) remains stable — this combination signals that short-term selling intentions are strengthening. This upward structure of the EMA indicator usually indicates a rapid shift in market sentiment, with investors seemingly prepared to sell step-by-step as prices approach resistance levels.

In other words, this EMA indicator turn is not a short-lived phenomenon but reflects ongoing position reduction. Every price increase will face selling pressure from large investors, directly limiting the possibility of ETH forming a strong upward trend in the short term.

Net Inflow and Price Divergence, Selling Opportunity May Be Brewing

It is worth noting that the large-scale net inflow did not immediately trigger a sharp price decline but instead resulted in sideways consolidation — what does this “net inflow and price divergence” phenomenon imply? The answer is that not all ETH entering exchanges is being sold instantly; investors are adopting more strategic approaches: gradually cashing out at different price levels.

This indicates that large investors are patiently waiting for suitable selling opportunities. As net inflow remains positive and is validated by the EMA indicator, they are expected to seek selling opportunities around the $3,080 level. Once this resistance is broken, it could trigger a chain of sell-offs, and ETH price may further challenge the $2,500 support level.

Market Bottom Not Clear, Countertrend Rebound Is a Good Opportunity to Reduce Positions

From the current overall trend, Ethereum is clearly in a bear market pattern, and it is premature to discuss a reversal before forming a clear bottom. In this context, any short-term rebound could be viewed as a golden opportunity to sell — unless net outflows increase significantly, bullish traders will continue to face selling pressure.

The sustained upward trend of the EMA indicator further confirms this judgment. In the short term, investors should expect the main trend to continue downward, and the current ETH price ($3.02K) still has room to rise toward the aforementioned resistance levels, but this space may be gradually consumed by selling pressure. The market still needs to patiently wait for bottom confirmation signals before considering participation in rebound opportunities.