BTC breaks through the $94,500 resistance level, heading straight for 100K—In-depth analysis of the major market structure shift

The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a long-awaited strong rebound. According to the latest data, Bitcoin broke through the key resistance level of $94,500 earlier this month, marking its first effective breakthrough since November last year, triggering a chain reaction. This move not only signifies a clear shift in market structure but also sparks a “bullish reverse liquidation” storm in the futures market.

Currently, BTC is fluctuating around $90,090, retracing from the high earlier this month. However, the market signals released during this upward movement are far more worth examining than the price figures themselves.

Liquidation Surge Unveiled: Why Did the Bears Face a Collective Kill Switch This Month?

The rally at the start of this month was astonishing. According to CoinGlass data, within just 24 hours, the crypto futures market experienced over $685 million in liquidations, with as much as $598 million coming from short positions caught in a squeeze. Notably, most of these liquidations occurred after Bitcoin broke through $94,500 — a barrier that had trapped bulls for more than three months.

Since December last year, Bitcoin has attempted to breach $94,500 three times but was repelled each time. When this “impossible to break” level was finally shattered amid strong buying pressure, a large number of short positions with stop-loss orders were instantly triggered. This is no coincidence — the accumulation of these key levels laid the groundwork for the subsequent short squeeze.

The change in open interest in the futures market further confirms this judgment. At the peak earlier this month, open interest reached $31.5 billion. As the liquidation wave intensified, it quickly dropped back to $30.6 billion. This detail is extremely important: rising prices accompanied by decreasing open interest indicate that this rally is driven not by short-term speculators but by genuine spot market buying, with futures shorts eager to cover their positions.

Two Major Forces Drive the Market Rebound, Capital Flows Signal a Critical Turning Point

Why did the market suddenly turn strong after a prolonged period of stagnation? Industry analysis points to two core factors:

First, the natural rebound potential after being oversold. The $19 billion liquidation crash in October last year pushed the market into an extremely “oversold” zone. Although many assets are now significantly undervalued, investors lack the courage and confidence to re-enter after the winter. Breaking through this psychological barrier often marks the start of a rebound.

Second, retail investors’ reallocation of funds. Over the past few months, retail investors have shifted their capital into precious metals like gold and silver, or chased AI-related tech stocks. However, when the “Fear & Greed Index” repeatedly hits the “Extreme Fear” zone, contrarian investors recognize signals that negative sentiment has been exhausted and decisively buy the dip. The reflow of capital is the direct driver of this rebound.

The convergence of these two forces breaks the long-term pessimism. Once the market turns, accumulated stop-loss orders and forced liquidations immediately accelerate the upward momentum.

Can the Support Hold? Three Scenarios Analyzed for Future Trends

The key question now is: can Bitcoin hold the $94,500 support and turn it into a new trading baseline?

Baseline Scenario: Hold the support and target $99,000. If Bitcoin successfully maintains above $94,500, the next strong resistance is at $99,000 — a level that served as a robust support from June to November last year. Now it becomes the last critical barrier before returning to the $100,000 mark. Breaking through this level would make the psychological $100,000 threshold within reach.

Risk Scenario: Fail to hold the support and retrace to a high-range consolidation. If Bitcoin cannot sustain above $94,500, the market may face a deeper correction. In this case, the $85,000 to $94,500 range will become the new short-term trading zone, requiring investors to wait patiently for clearer directional signals.

Extreme Scenario: Consecutive breakdowns and a correction back to lower support levels. If stop-loss triggers lead to further declines, deeper support levels may be needed to find a bottom. Such repeated fluctuations often indicate that the market requires more time to confirm a bottom.

Traders are closely watching the $94,500 pivot, which will determine the key direction of the subsequent trend. For medium- and long-term investors, the current price volatility is an important test of strategy and risk tolerance.