Are New Highs No Longer "Certain"? Tom Lee Reflects on His Predictions from "$250,000" to "Maybe a New High"

In the cryptocurrency market, all-time highs (ATH) often represent the peak of market optimism. Renowned analyst Tom Lee, known as the “Wall Street Sage,” has recently quietly shifted his outlook on Bitcoin’s all-time high predictions. His once confident call for a “$250,000 target by the end of the year” has now shifted to “perhaps there’s a chance for a new high,” reflecting deeper changes in market environment and forecasting strategies.

The Quiet Shift in All-Time High Targets

In an interview with CNBC, Tom Lee stated that Bitcoin “has a good chance” to break $100,000 before the end of the year, and “does not rule out” reaching a new high. In contrast, his repeated emphasis since early 2024 on the “$250,000 target” has been significantly softened. This marks the first time Tom Lee publicly downplays his previously long-held aggressive forecast, indicating a subtle shift in market consensus.

Notably, Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz warned as early as October that for Bitcoin to reach the historic high of $250,000, a series of “unusual events” would likely need to occur. This cautious stance contrasts interestingly with Tom Lee’s latest comments.

Why the Critical “Golden Ten Days” Will Decide the Year-End Rally

Although Tom Lee has become more conservative about the year’s end, he still insists that Bitcoin’s strongest rally has not yet arrived, and the main surge may only materialize by the end of 2025. He emphasizes that there are still some key upward days “before the end of this year.”

Tom Lee pointed out an interesting market phenomenon: most of Bitcoin’s annual gains tend to concentrate within a few trading days. On average, just 10 trading days in a year can complete the main rally—what the industry calls the “Golden Ten Days.”

Hunter Horsley, CEO of Bitwise, once said that while investors cannot precisely predict when these “Golden Ten Days” will occur, historical data shows that missing these days is almost equivalent to missing the entire year’s returns. For example, in 2024, the 10 most active trading days of Bitcoin generated a total return of 52%; meanwhile, the remaining 355 days averaged a return of -15%. This data profoundly illustrates why seizing the key moments around all-time highs is so important.

Policy Turmoil Disrupts Bullish Rhythm, All-Time Highs Face Tests

Looking back at recent market movements, Bitcoin has been in correction since mid-October, triggered by U.S. policy changes causing turbulence in global financial markets. Leveraged positions worth up to $19 billion in the crypto market were liquidated, significantly impacting market confidence. After weeks of sluggishness, Bitcoin finally regained the $90,000 level in late November.

According to on-chain data platform CoinGlass, November has historically been the month with the strongest average Bitcoin performance. However, this year’s volatility has clearly disrupted the bullish rhythm. Nonetheless, economist Timothy Peterson pointed out that Bitcoin’s bottom may have already formed, providing some psychological support for market participants.

As of the end of January 2026, Bitcoin’s price hovers around $89.94K, still some distance from the all-time high $100K , and market participants remain cautious about whether a new all-time high can be achieved.

The Accuracy Test of Forecast Masters

So, how should investors evaluate Tom Lee’s forecasting ability? Looking at historical records, his prediction skills tend to be characterized by “timing accuracy but not precision”:

Missed Case: In January 2018, he predicted Bitcoin would hit a new all-time high of $125,000 by 2022. The market made him wait three more years, reaching that level only in October 2024—showing that even top analysts can have significant deviations in timing for all-time highs.

Accurate Case: In July 2017, he forecasted that under a basic scenario, Bitcoin would reach $20,000 by 2022, with an optimistic scenario reaching $55,000. Bitcoin indeed hit these historic highs in December 2020 and March 2021, respectively, even earlier than expected.

Discussing Investors’ Choices Based on All-Time Highs

This time, Tom Lee’s shift from a bold $250,000 target to “perhaps a new high” has attracted attention across the global crypto community. But more importantly, investors should realize that: an all-time high is not an end goal but a natural result of market cycles.

Regardless of predictions from Tom Lee or other analysts, the market’s true movements often follow patterns like the “Golden Ten Days”—key moments that determine annual returns. For ordinary investors, rather than blindly chasing forecasts of all-time highs, it’s better to understand the intrinsic logic of the market and seize those decisive trading days.