When Will the Next Crypto Bull Market Begin? Fidelity's Timmer Maps the Path Forward

As Bitcoin settles near $89,950 following a dramatic peak of $126,080 just months ago, seasoned market watchers are recalibrating their forecasts. Fidelity’s Global Macro Director Jurien Timmer, a long-standing cryptocurrency advocate, now suggests investors should prepare for a patient cycle ahead—one that could reshape expectations around the next crypto bull market. His analysis draws on a compelling observation: Bitcoin’s price movements and timing follow remarkably consistent four-year patterns that have held across multiple market cycles.

The current market moment marks a critical inflection point. Understanding where we stand in Bitcoin’s cyclical journey could be essential for positioning ahead of the next crypto bull market.

Decoding Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle: What History Reveals

Bitcoin’s behavioral patterns aren’t random. Timmer argues that the recent peak near $125,000 in October, achieved after approximately 145 months of cumulative gains, aligns suspiciously well with prior four-year halving cycles. This isn’t mere coincidence—Bitcoin’s cyclical behavior follows from its programmed halving events, which reduce mining rewards every four years and historically trigger predictable rally phases.

“If we visually line up all the bull markets, we can see that the October high of $125k after 145 months of rallying fits pretty well with what one might expect,” Timmer noted in his analysis. The framework suggests each cycle follows a similar playbook: rapid appreciation, followed by a consolidation or correction phase. By this logic, the current market structure implies a period of retracement rather than immediate continuation.

The halving-driven cycles have proven remarkably durable across Bitcoin’s history. What makes Timmer’s perspective significant is his grounding in comparative analysis—he’s not predicting random market moves but calibrating expectations against documented historical patterns. This disciplined approach lends credibility to his forward guidance.

2026: A Potential “Year Off” for Bitcoin?

Timmer’s headline prediction carries weight: 2026 could represent a down year for Bitcoin, with the asset potentially trading in the $65,000 to $75,000 support zone. This isn’t pessimism masquerading as analysis. Rather, it reflects an observation that Bitcoin bear markets—colloquially called “crypto winters”—typically last roughly 12 months. Given that the latest rally phase already peaked, a 2026 consolidation period becomes structurally plausible within the cyclical framework.

“While I remain a secular bull on bitcoin, my concern is that bitcoin may well have ended another four year cycle halving phase, both in price and time,” Timmer wrote, emphasizing his long-term optimism despite near-term caution. The distinction matters: being bullish on Bitcoin’s multi-year trajectory doesn’t preclude acknowledging correction phases. The next crypto bull market likely remains on the horizon—just not immediately around the corner.

Support levels matter in this context. If Bitcoin gravitates toward the $65,000–$75,000 band, that range becomes the battleground where the next crypto bull market will either gain footing or falter further. Maintaining support near these levels would validate Timmer’s cyclical thesis and potentially position the foundation for mid-2026 or later recovery.

Market Stress Signals: When Leverage Meets Uncertainty

The timing of Timmer’s caution coincides with visible market strain. In the past 24 hours alone, over $625 million in leveraged crypto positions liquidated as traders absorbed intraday volatility spanning multiple asset classes. The liquidation wave reflected macro uncertainty around U.S. trade policy, bond market volatility, and geopolitical events—the same macro forces that typically pressure risk assets like Bitcoin.

Hyperliquid, a major derivatives exchange, recorded the largest single liquidation: a $40.22 million ETH-USD position unwound as price swings caught overleveraged shorts and longs. The broader $220.8 million liquidation spike on Hyperliquid underscores how fragile positioning has become—a reminder that during corrective phases, aggressive leverage becomes expensive insurance many traders can’t afford.

This environment adds urgency to Timmer’s framework. If Bitcoin cannot maintain stability above support levels, further cascading liquidations could accelerate downside moves. Conversely, if buyers defend the $65,000–$75,000 zone, it would strengthen the case that the current phase is a healthy correction within the multi-year cycle rather than a structural break.

Gold vs. Bitcoin: Diverging Market Narratives

Tellingly, Bitcoin’s recent weakness contrasts sharply with gold’s robust 2025 performance. The precious metal rallied approximately 65% year-to-date, outpacing global money supply growth and demonstrating classic bull market characteristics. During its latest correction, gold retained most of its gains—the hallmark of an asset in a genuine uptrend.

Bitcoin’s inability to mirror gold’s resilience raises questions about market conviction. Timmer attributes this divergence not to fundamental weakness in cryptocurrency but to cyclical timing: different assets peak and trough according to their own rhythms. Gold’s bull phase doesn’t invalidate Bitcoin’s longer-term thesis; it simply highlights that the next crypto bull market may require additional consolidation time.

What Comes After 2026? Preparing for the Next Crypto Bull Market

Patient investors can draw a map from Timmer’s analysis. The near-term focus should center on identifying whether support levels hold, how the broader macro environment evolves, and whether liquidation cascades subside. If Bitcoin stabilizes above $65,000 in coming weeks, that strength could signal the floor is forming earlier than pessimists expect.

The next crypto bull market won’t emerge overnight. History suggests it typically arrives after a period of sideways consolidation and sentiment capitulation. For contrarian investors, the current phase—characterized by Timmer’s caution, widespread leverage reduction, and gold’s outperformance—may represent exactly the market environment where conviction is forged. The 2026 “year off” Timmer envisions could paradoxically become the launching pad for the next crypto bull market’s acceleration phase.

Market participants watching Bitcoin hover near $89,950 should recognize this crossroads not as the end of a cycle but as a natural chapter in a longer story. The question isn’t whether the next crypto bull market will arrive—history suggests it will. The question is whether current traders possess the discipline to wait.