Bitcoin returns and risks are severely mismatched, recreating the market characteristics of 2022
Bitcoin's Sharpe ratio has fallen significantly into negative territory, reaching levels only seen during major drawdowns in 2018–2019 and after the 2022 market crash. A negative Sharpe ratio indicates poor risk-adjusted performance: high price volatility and weak or even negative returns. This state may persist even after prices stop declining sharply. From historical experience, meaningful trend reversals in Bitcoin often do not occur when the Sharpe ratio first dips below zero, but rather after it has continued to rise and re-enter positive territory. Even though Bitcoin's current price still hovers above $90,000, the overall market continues to exhibit high volatility and low returns.
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Bitcoin returns and risks are severely mismatched, recreating the market characteristics of 2022
Bitcoin's Sharpe ratio has fallen significantly into negative territory, reaching levels only seen during major drawdowns in 2018–2019 and after the 2022 market crash. A negative Sharpe ratio indicates poor risk-adjusted performance: high price volatility and weak or even negative returns. This state may persist even after prices stop declining sharply.
From historical experience, meaningful trend reversals in Bitcoin often do not occur when the Sharpe ratio first dips below zero, but rather after it has continued to rise and re-enter positive territory. Even though Bitcoin's current price still hovers above $90,000, the overall market continues to exhibit high volatility and low returns.