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 growth of only about 2% since the beginning of the year.
Factors Triggering Bitcoin Price Decline
The U.S. Supreme Court failed to deliver a ruling on the tariff lawsuit on the scheduled decision date. None of the three rulings issued that day involved tariff issues, further extending the uncertainty regarding the president’s authority to set import tariff policies.
The situation worsened as the U.S. government plans to impose a 10% tariff on multiple European countries, including France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, Denmark, Norway, Finland, and Sweden, starting February 1. If the Supreme Court supports this tariff policy, the market believes it could put pressure on risk assets, including Bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency market.
Beyond U.S. factors, pressure from Asia is also impacting Bitcoin. Markets reacted to concerns that the Bank of Japan might implement further interest rate hikes following signals of tighter monetary policy. This is believed to potentially trigger a collapse of yen arbitrage trading strategies and lead to sell-offs across global assets.
Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Outlook for Tariff Policies
Uncertainty in Japan has increased due to rising government bond yields, following Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s announcement of an early election plan to increase fiscal spending.
Data from Polymarket shows that the probability of the U.S. Supreme Court supporting Trump’s tariff policy has now risen to 37%, up significantly from around 28% previously. This increase in probability is also weighing on market sentiment toward cryptocurrencies.
Trump’s tariff policies were also among the triggers for the sharp correction in Bitcoin at the end of last year. On October 10 last year, after Trump threatened to impose tariffs of up to 100% on Chinese goods, the cryptocurrency market experienced a significant decline.
On the other hand, some analysts remain pessimistic. Veteran technical analyst Peter Brandt predicts that Bitcoin’s price could further decline to the range of $58,000 to $62,000.
Under these pressures, market participants are also beginning to lower their short-term rebound expectations. Data from Polymarket shows that the probability of Bitcoin surpassing $100,000 before the end of the month is now only 12%, reflecting a diminished optimism among investors regarding recent price movements.