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#加密市场观察 Market Analysis for Today
The current market is in an extremely absurd "binary opposition": on one side, the US government is like a leaky sieve, not only having its wallet private keys stolen by the contractor’s son, but even its storefront (government functions) is on the verge of shutting down due to the shutdown drama; on the other side, the financial mainstream represented by MicroStrategy and South American pensions is stitching Bitcoin into the framework of global capital in an unprecedented manner. In plain terms, we are experiencing a "dual handover of power and credit."
The most lamentable truth revealed by ZachXBT is that $40 million in government assets were stolen because the contractor executive responsible for asset seizure failed to manage his son properly. This is not only a security vulnerability but also the greatest irony of "centralized custody." While Washington is still arguing over the budget plan, causing the probability of government shutdown on Polymarket to soar to 78%, the crypto market is actually paying for this systemic decay. The recent Bitcoin sell-off is less about failed risk hedging and more about the market preemptively hedging against the chaos in dollar liquidity.
Interestingly, prediction markets have now become a more accurate "truth machine" than mainstream media, with capital voting with their feet much faster than press releases. But the signals behind this are not all bearish.
The real highlight is MicroStrategy’s "financial alchemy." Michael Saylor’s idea of a "perpetual preferred stock" model is essentially trying to convert the $8 billion convertible bond pressure into an almost perpetual capital leverage. This is an extremely hardcore financial innovation, meaning Bitcoin on corporate balance sheets is no longer just a "speculative asset," but a credit cornerstone that can be continually leveraged and even not require principal repayment.
Adding to this, the entry of Colombia’s second-largest pension fund sends a clear signal: established capital has already seen through the fragility of the fiat system. They are willing to endure Bitcoin’s volatility rather than bear the risks of systemic fiat system shutdowns. As for Foundry USA’s hash rate dropping 60% due to a snowstorm and the collapse of a16z-backed Entropy, these are more like pains in the process of industry "shedding falsehoods and preserving truths." The fragility of the physical world (power grid) and the exit of startups instead reveal who the real infrastructure is.
Wood (Cathie Wood) is increasing positions in Cb and Circle against the trend at this juncture, betting that after this chaos, only compliant and systemically important crypto companies will survive.
Ultimately, while this week’s Fed rate decision and Powell’s statements are important, they are just short-term "noise." The true logical mainline is: the old power centers (government and traditional custody) are showing signs of fatigue, even unable to guarantee basic security; meanwhile, the new digital financial order is gradually replacing the old world through Saylor-style debt restructuring and pension infiltration. Don’t be scared by the short-term shutdown risks; true hardcore investors are watching those big players who are reshaping the rules.