How Jobs Data and Stock Market Signals Are Reshaping Crypto Sentiment in Early 2026

The cryptocurrency and equity markets are undergoing a significant recalibration following the Supreme Court’s January 10 tariff decision and the December employment report release. Bitcoin has declined from its $91,000 level to $77,020, down 2.24% over 24 hours, while Ethereum fell to $2,270, posting a steeper 6.78% daily decline. These moves reflect broader reassessment across both crypto and stock markets as investors digest the implications of policy uncertainty and labor market data.

Supreme Court Tariff Ruling: Reshaping Bitcoin and Stock Market Dynamics

The Supreme Court’s decision on Trump’s tariff emergency powers has already begun influencing market behavior. Before the ruling, prediction markets assigned only a 24% probability to the court upholding the administration’s tariff authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. The actual decision has now clarified the path forward, though with important caveats.

Interactive Brokers economist Jose Torres warned that even with the Supreme Court’s decision, the administration would likely pursue alternative policy channels. This potential outcome could push long-term U.S. bond yields higher and tighten global liquidity conditions—developments that traditionally weigh on both equity and cryptocurrency valuations.

Stock market futures showed minimal reaction immediately following the ruling, with the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq contracts all trading sideways. However, as markets absorb the tariff framework over subsequent weeks, stock volatility could intensify. Asian traders appear more focused on the duration of policy uncertainty rather than the ruling itself, suggesting that the market’s primary concern extends beyond this single event.

Employment Report Impact: Jobs Data Signals Divergence Between Stock and Crypto Markets

The December employment report delivered 70,000 new jobs, slightly below early expectations, with unemployment ticking down to the forecasted 4.5% level. This mixed jobs data has created divergent reactions across asset classes. Stock markets had priced in softer employment data, so the jobs report aligned with expectations rather than delivering a market-moving surprise.

However, the jobs report carries heightened significance for the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory ahead of its late January meeting. Softer job creation data typically supports the case for maintaining accommodative monetary conditions, which could benefit risk assets including cryptocurrencies. Yet simultaneously, if the labor market shows genuine weakness, recession concerns could resurface, triggering defensive positioning in both equity and crypto portfolios.

Bitcoin and Ethereum’s current weakness suggests traders are currently favoring caution. The sharp 24-hour declines across major crypto assets may reflect profit-taking after recent strength or repositioning ahead of further stock market volatility.

Market Behavior Patterns: How Tariff Episodes and Jobs Data Drive Volatility

CoinDesk’s analysis of the first quarter 2025 tariff period, termed the “Tariff Tantrum,” revealed that sharp but temporary price declines do not necessarily signal broad exits from crypto assets. During that episode, liquidation cascades and momentum-based selling created dramatic intraday swings while long-term capital flows remained relatively stable.

Trend-following trading strategies performed well during this period by cutting risk exposure early—a playbook that may prove relevant if stock market turbulence extends into February 2026. The historical pattern suggests that initial volatility tends to resolve relatively quickly once market participants calibrate to new policy environments.

Gold and Broader Asset Allocation: Jobs Growth and Stock Performance Shape Precious Metals Demand

HSBC maintains its forecast that gold could reach $5,050 per ounce in early 2026, citing geopolitical risks and escalating government debt levels as primary drivers. The bank cautioned that a pullback could emerge later in 2026 if either geopolitical tensions ease or the Federal Reserve adopts a more hawkish monetary stance.

Jobs data provides crucial input to this calculus. Stronger employment growth might encourage the Fed to tighten monetary conditions, potentially pressuring gold prices. Conversely, weaker jobs reports could support safe-haven demand for precious metals. Similarly, stock market performance feeds into this dynamic—if equity valuations struggle amid tariff uncertainty and softer growth, investors may reallocate portions of their portfolios toward gold.

The S&P 500 has gained approximately 1% for the first full week of 2026, while the Dow has advanced 1.8% and the Nasdaq Composite added 1.1%. These modest stock market gains mask underlying uncertainty about whether jobs growth will sustain this upward trajectory.

Market Outlook: Positioning for Jobs and Stock Volatility

Markets continue to operate in a holding pattern as traders weigh how jobs trends and stock sector rotation will unfold post-tariff ruling. The Trump administration’s announced intention to purchase $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities remains unclear in its specific implementation, adding another layer of policy unpredictability.

For cryptocurrency traders, the nexus between jobs data and stock market performance has become increasingly important. When stock markets falter amid weak jobs data, crypto often follows—but when stock strength persists despite softer employment trends, risk appetite can support crypto valuations. The path forward likely depends on whether the labor market stabilizes around current levels or accelerates further weakness, and whether stock markets can sustain gains given the tariff and policy headwinds ahead.