1. Yesterday ETH from 1470→2080: Market Maker Intentions (Positioning from the Big Player Perspective)

This rapid surge is mostly bait—90% of it is to lure in traders, with a clear purpose:

- Triggering short squeezes + trapping longs: First, a violent rally to blow out high-level shorts; then, heavy selling around 2080 to trap retail traders chasing the move.
- No-volume rebound = false rebound: The key point is “no volume”—no sustained capital inflow, purely driven by contract liquidations and short-term funds pushing the price up, which collapses once buying stops.
- Bad news keeps coming but prices still rise: Emotional rebound + technical oversold conditions.
- Fear index drops to extreme fear (12), oversold conditions are severe, short-term recovery needed.
- $2.6 billion in liquidations across 570,000 traders, concentrated short liquidations, passive price push.
- US stock futures briefly halt decline, triggering risk asset pulses.
- Institutions/whales accumulate at low levels around 1470-1600, quickly push prices up to sell off.

2. Why does the market keep rising despite continuous bad news (Market Maker Thinking)

1. All bad news becomes good news (short-term):
Federal Reserve hawkish stance, ETF net outflows, V神 selling, regulatory negative news all released in short succession—short-term selling pressure exhausted, selling dries up, slight buying pushes prices higher.
2. Technical: Oversold rebound
RSI, MACD bottom divergence, 1470 is a strong short-term support, triggering technical buy signals.
3. Contract Market: Bull and bear trap
Market makers use high leverage, first push to blow out shorts, then dump longs, harvesting both sides.
4. No-volume truth: No new funds entering
The rise relies on existing capital + liquidations, with no sustained institutional inflow, so the rebound is unsustainable.

3. Current Judgment: Clearly a bait move, beware of a big dump

- Resistance level: 2080-2100 is a strong barrier; failure to break indicates a trap top.
- Support level: 1800-1850, if broken look to 1700-1740.
- Trading Suggestions:
- Don’t chase longs; focus on shorting from 2050-2100 range.
- Only lightly trade longs below 1800, with strict stop-loss.
- No-volume rebounds are not worth fighting; quick in and out.

4. Future Trend Projection (Positioning Expert Warning)

- If 2080 cannot hold + volume continues to shrink: Likely to follow a pattern of bait → dump → large wave C decline, targeting 1500-1600 or even lower.
- If volume breaks through 2100+ with capital inflow: reversal possible, but currently very unlikely.

Summary: Yesterday’s rally was a classic bait—oversold rebound + no-volume rise + frequent bad news + market maker harvesting—avoid catching the falling knife! Watch out for risks #美国部分停摆结束