#BTC BTC Market Trends Multi-Dimensional Analysis

1. Short-Term Trends (Intraday and Last 7 Days): Sharp rebound after a crash, increased volatility
- Intraday Rhythm: On February 7th, the market approached breaking below the $60,000 level (the first time since October 2024), then quickly rebounded, reaching $71,469, nearly recovering all losses from February 6th (Thursday), when the price plummeted over 13% in a single day
- 7-Day Performance: The past 7 days saw a total decline of 16%, showing a "sharp drop and quick rebound" pattern. Global liquidation amounts within 24 hours reached $2.59 billion, with 579,027 people experiencing liquidations!
- Key Technical Levels: Strong support at $64,000 (rebound starting point today), $60,000 (psychological threshold); Resistance at $68,000 (24H moving average + yesterday’s dense trading zone), $72,000 (today’s rebound high)
2. Mid-Term Trends (Last 30 Days and 3 Months): Continuous correction, entering deep adjustment phase
- 30-Day Performance: Cumulative decline of 31.17%, continuously declining from the $102,000 range at the end of January 2026, marking the longest consecutive downtrend since 2018, lasting four months
- 3-Month Performance: From the peak of $118,000 in mid-November 2025 to the current level, down over 39%, accompanied by ETF fund outflows and leverage unwinding, among other structural adjustments
- Market Sentiment: Panic and greed index rebounded from a recent low of 10 to 20, still in extreme fear territory, with no clear signs of easing yet
3. Long-Term Trends (1 Year and Historical Perspective): High-level retreat, valuation normalization
- 1-Year Performance: Slight fluctuations around the $85,000 level in February 2025, but a total decline of 42.7% from the peak of $124,407.57 in October 2025, raising concerns about potential halving risks
- Historical Patterns: Since the 2020 bull cycle, Bitcoin has experienced three corrections exceeding 40%. The current adjustment is close to the historical average in magnitude but has lasted longer than previous cycles
Core Influencing Factors Breakdown
1. Macroeconomic and Policy Factors
- Federal Reserve Policy Expectations: Trump’s nomination of hawkish Kevin Waugh as Fed Chair has led markets to anticipate prolonged high interest rates, strengthening the dollar and compressing valuations of high-risk assets, with Bitcoin as a non-yield asset being most affected
- Global Risk Appetite: Increased geopolitical risks from US-Iran negotiations, coupled with liquidity tightening caused by sharp declines in precious metals markets, have led to widespread declines in risk assets
- Regulatory Developments: The legislative process for the US “Digital Asset Market Clarity Act” (CLARITY Act) has been delayed, increasing uncertainty premiums for institutional participation and suppressing long-term allocation demand
2. Market Capital and Structural Factors
- ETF Fund Flows: Spot Bitcoin ETF saw significant outflows at the beginning of the year, with two consecutive weeks of redemptions weakening structural buy support and lacking absorption capacity
- Leverage Unwinding: Margin adjustments in derivatives markets triggered chain liquidations, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $12 billion since February, intensifying passive selling pressure and price volatility
- Arbitrage Capital Contraction: Narrowing price gaps between futures and spot ETF prices led arbitrage funds to shift towards traditional safe-haven assets like precious metals, putting pressure on cryptocurrency market liquidity
3. Industry and Technical Factors
- On-Chain Data: Large Ethereum whales with high leverage positions experienced cascading liquidations, triggering a “stampede effect” that dragged down Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies
- Exchange Dynamics: The CB premium index remains low, reflecting subdued sentiment among US-based core trading institutions and insufficient spot market demand
- Technical Indicators: The current price has broken below the critical 200-day moving average support, indicating a bearish alignment. Short-term rebounds lack fundamental support