Corn Futures Weaken as Export Commitments Exceed Seasonal Pace

GasFeeCrybaby · 2026-02-08T06:15:11+00:00

Corn futures are declining due to strong dollar and energy market pressures, despite robust export commitments that exceed seasonal averages. Traders face a challenging landscape, balancing strong demand with broader market headwinds.

GasFeeCrybaby

2026-02-08 06:15:11

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Corn futures are facing headwinds on Friday, with near-month contracts declining 5 to 5 ½ cents during mid-session trading. The CmdtyView national cash price has retreated 5 cents to $3.90 1/2 per bushel. Despite strong export performance—with commitments reaching 57.694 million metric tons and representing 71% of USDA projections (a pace running 4 percentage points ahead of the 67% seasonal average)—price pressure continues as broader market conditions weigh on sentiment.

Export Sales Momentum Outpacing Seasonal Trends

The export sales data reveals a compelling picture: corn commitments are tracking 33% above the same period last year, demonstrating robust international demand. The 71% achievement rate against USDA forecasts indicates that approximately 21 out of 25 projected export goals are on track to be met, a strong performance by seasonal standards. This acceleration suggests sustained buyer interest, yet it has provided only limited price support in the current environment.

Dollar Strength and Energy Markets Pressuring Prices

External market forces are driving the decline. The dollar index has strengthened to $0.703, making U.S. corn less competitive on global markets, while crude oil has softened by 94 cents per barrel. These macro headwinds are offsetting the positive signals from export data, creating a tug-of-war between fundamental strength and technical selling pressure. The combination typically pressures commodity prices as investors reassess positioning.

Futures Contract Settlement Reflects Broader Weakness

Individual contract prices are uniformly lower across the curve: March 26 corn sits at $4.25 3/4 (down 5 cents), May 26 corn at $4.33 3/4 (down 5 ¼ cents), and July 26 corn at $4.40 1/2 (down 5 ¼ cents). This consistent weakness across multiple contract months suggests the decline is driven by macro concerns rather than supply-demand imbalances in any specific delivery period. Traders are positioning defensively as corn heads into February with conflicting signals between strong export demand and challenging external market dynamics.

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