XRP Remains Far From $100: Why Schwartz's Market Math Actually Makes Sense

David Schwartz, Ripple’s Chief Technology Officer, recently challenged the crypto community’s loftier price expectations for XRP—and his logic deserves serious consideration. The core argument is far from complicated: if institutional and retail investors genuinely believed XRP could reach $100 within a reasonable timeframe, market dynamics would already reflect that conviction through aggressive buying pressure. Instead, the asset trades well below $10, signaling something important about how the market actually evaluates future potential.

The Price Signal Speaks Volumes

Current market prices, according to Schwartz’s framework, represent a collective probability assessment—not hopium or FOMO. When he observes that XRP trades around $1.44 (as of February 2026), he interprets this as the market’s rational verdict on near-term and medium-term catalysts. If serious money managers believed in a meaningful probability of triple-digit returns, the buying pressure would eliminate that pricing gap far more quickly than we’ve seen.

Schwartz made this point explicit: rational investors operating with a 10% confidence level for a $100 price target would flood the market at current levels. They’d accumulate aggressively rather than watch from the sidelines. Yet that aggressive accumulation hasn’t materialized at scale, suggesting the market collectively assigns lower probabilities to that scenario than vocal optimists claim.

The gap between conviction and capital deployment—between what people say and what they actually bet on—is the real story. This separation often reveals authentic market sentiment more clearly than social media discussions ever could.

When Past Predictions Humble Experts

Interestingly, Schwartz’s own track record adds texture to this debate. He’s acknowledged previously underestimating both XRP and Bitcoin’s potential. When XRP languished below $0.10, it seemed economically absurd for it to reach $0.25. He sold. Years later, XRP surged past that level by orders of magnitude. Similarly, when Bitcoin approached $100, surpassing that threshold seemed impossible. Today it trades above $120,000.

These historical missteps haven’t gone unnoticed by the XRP community. Some proponents argue that Schwartz’s current skepticism about triple-digit XRP prices reflects the same underestimation bias that burned him before. If he was wrong about Bitcoin and XRP’s earlier price floors, they reason, perhaps he’s wrong about the ceiling too.

Yet Schwartz doesn’t claim absolute certainty. He’s explicitly stated discomfort with definitive price predictions, acknowledging the possibility of being wrong again. This intellectual humility—while maintaining a framework of probability-based analysis—distinguishes his position from pure bearishness.

Probability vs. Hope in Crypto Investing

The real tension lies in separating realistic price discovery from speculative enthusiasm. Schwartz’s probability framework suggests that current market pricing already incorporates forward-looking expectations fairly efficiently. Major bull runs, in his view, typically emerge from unpredictable external developments rather than from gradual shifts in expected value.

This doesn’t mean XRP can’t surprise everyone again. The crypto market has consistently defied conventional expectations. But the distance between “possible” and “likely” matters for capital allocation decisions. Whether XRP is far from $100 or merely awaiting the right catalyst remains an open question—one that the market will ultimately answer through price action rather than debate.

For now, the message is clear: don’t conflate possibility with probability when managing risk. The gap between current trading levels and ambitious price targets reflects something real about how informed market participants evaluate XRP’s prospects.

Key Takeaways:

• XRP trading far from $100 suggests the market rationally discounts triple-digit scenarios despite community optimism
• Schwartz acknowledges previous underestimations of both XRP and Bitcoin while maintaining probability-based analysis
• The distinction between possible upside and probable outcomes determines investment strategy and portfolio positioning