#我在Gate广场过新年 Crypto Market Watch

1. Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes Released: Neutral Slightly Hawkish, No Change in Rate Cut Expectations but Uncertain Pace
In the early morning of February 20, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of the January 2026 monetary policy meeting, clearly showing significant disagreement among officials regarding monetary policy expectations. Overall, the stance is "neutral leaning hawkish," with no change to the market's overall expectation of a rate cut, but it has increased uncertainty about the policy pace. Key points are as follows:
① Officials unanimously agree that before further rate cuts, inflation needs to continue declining. Policies like Trump's tariffs may exacerbate inflation risks, adding uncertainty to inflation's downward trend;
② Internally, three main camps have formed: the dovish camp advocates for a 25 basis point rate cut, the neutral camp prefers to wait for more data verification, and the hawkish camp is wary of inflation risks and advocates keeping the possibility of rate hikes;
③ Discussed the possibility of slowing or pausing balance sheet reduction (QT) to ease reserve fluctuations in the banking system;
④ Fed Vice Chair Jefferson later emphasized that current inflation remains high, and the path back to the 2% target is challenging. The Fed can "take its time" to assess data, further reinforcing expectations of no immediate rate cuts in the short term. Currently, the market generally expects the Fed to cut rates again in June, with a second round possibly starting in September or October. However, the timing remains uncertain due to inflation, labor market conditions, and leadership changes at the Fed (such as the Kevin Wirth nomination), making liquidity support for the crypto market difficult in the near term.

2. US Dollar Strengthening + Continued Capital Outflows Suppress High-Risk Asset Performance

As of this morning, the US dollar index remains near four-week highs (briefly surpassing 98 during trading). The dollar's strength has triggered a global capital flight back into dollar assets, putting continued pressure on cryptocurrencies as high-risk assets. This is also one of the main reasons why Bitcoin's rebound yesterday failed to break through key resistance levels. Meanwhile, the trend of capital withdrawal from the crypto market has not changed. Over the past three months, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced a net outflow of nearly $12 billion, with $1.2 billion net outflow just in the past week. Ethereum ETFs have also seen four consecutive weeks of net outflows, totaling about $161 million in one week. The ongoing capital outflows have weakened the momentum for mainstream cryptocurrencies to rebound, making it difficult to form an effective reversal.

3. Low Liquidity + Geopolitical Risks Continue to Amplify Market Volatility
Currently, we are still in the tail end of the Spring Festival holiday, with light market trading and low liquidity. Small buy/sell orders can significantly amplify price fluctuations, causing BTC and ETH to oscillate around key levels without forming clear trends. Additionally, geopolitical risks have not dissipated. Trump’s statement supporting Israel’s airstrikes on Iran has triggered risk-averse sentiment globally. Some investors still prefer to sell crypto assets for safety. Coupled with concerns over alternative asset management giant Blue Owl restricting redemptions, market fears have further limited the space for crypto market rebounds.

4. Key Focus Today: Global PMI Data and US Stock Market Trends
Today, attention should be paid to the initial PMI figures for manufacturing, services, and composite indices in the US, Eurozone, UK, and Japan for February. If the data underperform expectations, it could raise concerns about the global economic recovery and further suppress high-risk assets. If the data beat expectations, it may boost US stocks and indirectly benefit the crypto market. Additionally, US stocks yesterday declined due to tech sector weakness, ending two consecutive days of gains. Today’s US stock movements will be linked to the crypto market, so ongoing monitoring is necessary.