2022: Global Black Swans and Their Continuous Impact on the World

2022 marked a historic turning point as a series of unexpected black swan events appeared worldwide. Among these shocking events, one black swan came directly from the cryptocurrency industry, while three others impacted the global financial ecosystem. Notably, these black swans are not isolated incidents but manifestations of profound changes in the world’s economic-political order, where the boundaries between the cryptocurrency sector and traditional economics are no longer as clear as before.

Geopolitical conflicts and energy crises - Black swans from the East

2022 began with a geopolitical conflict lasting over 300 days, causing significant impacts across global markets. Stocks, forex, energy commodities—all fell into chaos. Western countries imposed what were called the “strictest sanctions in history,” but the results backfired. Leading European nations faced energy shortages and uncontrollable inflation.

In the domino effect caused by the conflict, natural gas prices soared to record highs. Major gas pipelines from East to West were shut down, while infrastructure failures pushed energy prices even higher. Europeans faced an unprecedented cost of living crisis. However, a strange downside of these black swans was that the currency of the sanctioned countries strengthened—an example of the market’s complexity.

Rampant interest rate hikes - Black swan from central banks

Western countries weren’t only affected by geopolitical events. Central banks worldwide began aggressive rate hikes to combat rising inflation. The U.S. Federal Reserve led with seven rate increases in the year, raising the cumulative rate by 425 basis points to 4.50%—the largest annual increase since 1980.

Other central banks from Europe to Latin America adopted similar policies. The U.S. stock market experienced its largest retreat since 2009, officially entering a “bear market.” These black swans also had ripple effects on global economies, including the crypto industry. Bitcoin and other digital currencies were affected by Europe’s energy crisis, causing mining costs to spike.

Commodity market collapse - When financial monsters reveal themselves

Mid-2022, another major black swan event occurred in the commodities market. A key metal, nickel, became the focus of a crisis when the London Metal Exchange (LME) organized a shock sell-off. Nickel futures prices surged over 250% in two days, reaching a record high of $101,365 per ton.

Behind this crisis was one of the world’s largest nickel producers, with a short position of 150,000 tons yet to be liquidated. Major financial institutions like JPMorgan Chase had to close buy positions at a loss of $120 million. This event showed that black swans not only impact traditional financial markets but also leave deep scars in the global financial system.

Political and technological crises - When black swans bring others

In fall 2022, the UK became the epicenter of another political crisis that triggered more black swans. The country saw three prime ministers in just one year. The last one implemented tax cuts to curb inflation, directly opposing the Bank of England’s tightening policies.

This policy clash resulted in an unprecedented “bond-yield and stock market” crisis, with the British pound plummeting to historic lows. Simultaneously, Elon Musk launched a $44 billion acquisition of Twitter, a move with unforeseen consequences. After taking over, he began large-scale layoffs of executives and researchers, leading to overburdened staff and ongoing instability. Major advertisers withdrew, causing Twitter to lose its position as a “global traffic engine.” Meanwhile, Musk’s Tesla stock also suffered, dropping 69% over the year.

Fake recovery signals - Deceptive signs

By late 2022, Hong Kong’s stock market experienced its most remarkable recovery in two decades. From autumn lows to positive signals on anti-pandemic policies and real estate stimulus, Hong Kong stocks rebounded up to 35% from October lows. The index neared 20,000 points.

However, this recovery masked deep concerns. As interest rates continued rising and enthusiasm for new energy waned, inflationary pressures persisted. The black swans from the previous quarter still left long-lasting scars.

Cryptocurrency castle collapses - The final black swans of 2022

The crypto crisis of 2022 was not a single event but a series of black swans within the crypto ecosystem. First, Luna—a highly anticipated crypto project—completely collapsed, triggering a chain of events. Bank runs and panic waves spread across exchanges.

All these events culminated at year’s end with the total collapse of FTX, one of the world’s largest crypto exchanges. FTX held only $900 million in liquid assets but faced liabilities of $89–$100 million. The frantic capital outflows on the platform evaporated in an instant, turning these black swans into a “Lehman Moment” for the crypto industry. Sam Bankman-Fried, FTX’s founder once hailed as a “savior” of the sector, is now considered “one of the biggest financial fraudsters in history.”

When black swans are no longer isolated events

The black swans of 2022 are not merely isolated crises occurring in different countries. They are manifestations of a comprehensive transformation in the global economic-political order. What was once considered stable—stable currencies, predictable interest rate policies, reliable technological platforms—is now shaken.

From geopolitical conflicts to energy crises, from aggressive monetary policies to the collapse of crypto castles, these black swans form a panoramic picture of a world undergoing unprecedented change. The only constant in all these events is continuous change, and an uncertain future awaits those prepared to face it.