Altseason 2026: Is the wait finally over or are there still obstacles?

Hope for a true altseason to flourish begins to gain ground among investors in early 2026. However, although economic optimism is growing, cryptocurrency market indicators still do not show the definitive conditions that historically precede major altcoin rallies. It’s too early to celebrate; at least one key shift in capital behavior is still missing.

Macroeconomic indicators show the first glimmer of hope

The ISM Manufacturing PMI recently reached 52.6%, its strongest reading in nearly 40 months. This marked the return of U.S. manufacturing to expansion territory, a milestone not achieved in a long time.

Looking back, major altseason cycles in 2017 and 2021 emerged only after the PMI clearly surpassed the 55 threshold. Current levels are still far from that peak, although the trajectory suggests we may be witnessing the early steps of a turning point. Macroeconomic signals are improving, but still cautiously.

Ethereum: the market thermometer still showing cold

Ethereum (ETH), historically the precursor to any altseason, presents a discouraging outlook. The token has closed in the red in 12 of the last 15 months, with a negative performance of -10.42% over the past 12 months. The monthly performance chart highlights this persistent weakness: irregular gains interspersed with frequent declines throughout 2024 and up to now.

This is crucial. Sustained altseasons have almost always been preceded by a clear and continuous bullish trend in ETH. Without Ethereum regaining its northward momentum, it’s hard to imagine the rest of the altcoins starting a consistent move.

Capital remains tied to Bitcoin, not shifting to altcoins

Although economic optimism rises on the surface, the market reality is colder. CoinGlass’s Altcoin Season Index stands at 39 points, below the level that typically signals a rotation of capital from Bitcoin into higher-risk assets. Despite improving prospects, money has not yet flowed significantly into altcoins.

Even more revealing: BTC.D (Bitcoin dominance) hovers around 55.13% on the daily chart. In previous altseasons, that shift was preceded by a clear decline in Bitcoin dominance, with investors moving their funds into alternative assets. For now, that movement simply has not occurred.

What’s missing for altseason to truly take off

The data paints a clear picture: although doors are opening slowly, the market still awaits the definitive catalyst. PMI is improving, but not enough. Ethereum remains in the red territory. Capital continues to cling to Bitcoin rather than seeking opportunities in altcoins.

For altseason to materialize in 2026, two immediate changes are needed: first, Ethereum must regain its bullish momentum consistently, demonstrating genuine confidence in alternative assets. Second, capital must start flowing massively out of Bitcoin into altcoins, which would be reflected in a notable drop in BTC.D and a jump in the Altcoin Season Index.

Until these two pillars materialize, any upward movement will remain tepid and temporary. The market has the curtain ready, but the main actor is still missing for the show to begin.