💥Immediately following the data release, Bitcoin dropped below the psychological level of $70,000, falling as low as the $68,700-$69,000 range on some exchanges. This movement mirrored a general sell-off in stocks and risky assets. Investors shifted to "risk-off" positions as the weak employment data was interpreted as a recession signal. Oil prices rising above $90 due to tensions with Iran fueled stagflation fears, while the short-term strengthening of the dollar put pressure on BTC. However, this decline was limited; Bitcoin recovered during the day, trading near $70,000, and the total capitalization of the cryptocurrency market remained around the $2 trillion mark.

💥This limited volatility stems from the market interpreting the data as a "one-off" event (due to factors such as strikes and weather conditions). Temporary factors such as strikes in the healthcare sector and harsh winter conditions suggested that the decline was not a structural collapse. Nevertheless, successive revisions and sector-based losses keep concerns about a long-term slowdown alive.
Medium-Term Impact: Fed Interest Rate Cut Expectations Support BTC
Weak NFP data has led the Federal Reserve to reconsider its monetary policy. While markets are almost unanimous in agreeing that interest rates will remain unchanged at the March meeting, the probability of an interest rate cut in the second half of 2026 (specifically the June-September period) has significantly increased. According to CME FedWatch data, a total cut of 40-60 basis points by the end of the year has begun to be priced in — which, while lower than pre-Iran energy shock levels, has recovered due to the impact of weak employment. This scenario is critical for cryptocurrency investors: Interest rate cuts increase liquidity, weaken the dollar, and stimulate risk appetite. Bitcoin has historically shone as "digital gold" and "risk asset" in low-interest rate environments. Weak employment data suggests the Fed may be more aggressive in addressing recession risk rather than opting for a "soft landing"—a positive catalyst for BTC. Analysts predict that if the March-April reports are also weak, Bitcoin could launch a new rally towards the $75,000-$80,000 range.
💥#FebNonfarmPayrollsUnexpectedlyFall data is testing the $68,000-$70,000 range in the short term, while supporting hopes for interest rate cuts in the medium term. The market is currently in a "wait and see" phase: the next employment report and the Fed's March comments will determine the direction. If weakness continues, BTC's shift from "risk-off" to "risk-on" could accelerate, and we could see new highs for the remainder of 2026. However, if the oil shock and recession fears prevail, the $65,000 support level could be retested. The message for crypto investors is clear: the data surprise triggered a short-term sell-off, but the macro story could still turn in Bitcoin's favor. Liquidity and risk appetite will be the key determinants in the coming months.
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