Market Overview for March 10: The craziest day in oil prices history, U.S. stocks V-shaped rebound

Investors Are Betting on the War Ending Early

Author: Deep Tide TechFlow

US Stocks: Dawn of Peace, Dow Surges 206 Points

On Monday, Wall Street staged an epic turnaround.

The Dow jumped 206 points (+0.43%) to close at 47,707, the S&P 500 soared 0.83% to 6,796, and the Nasdaq skyrocketed 1.38% to 22,696. This is the first broad rebound since the US-Iran conflict erupted and the strongest single-day gain in nearly two weeks.

Why did the market suddenly shift from panic to celebration? Early Monday, Trump stated that U.S. military actions in Iran could “end very soon,” and the Strait of Hormuz is reopening. This statement acted like a powerful boost, completely reversing market sentiment.

The Dow briefly fell 600 points intraday before V-shaped recovery, ending higher. Such rollercoaster movements have become the norm this week—markets swinging wildly between “war escalation” and “war ending.”

Sector Performance: Chip Stocks Lead the Rally. Broadcom and AMD surged over 4.6%, Nvidia rose 2.73%, Micron also gained over 5%. Technology stocks drove the rebound, with investors re-committing to the AI narrative.

Dow 30 Components: Caterpillar led with a 3.39% gain, Nvidia up 2.73%, Amgen up 2.01%. Biggest losers were Cisco down 3.08%, Boeing down 2.70%, IBM down 2.08%.

Financial stocks remained weak, with Wells Fargo continuing to decline. Energy stocks showed mixed performance—despite oil prices plummeting, some energy stocks took profits as war premiums receded.

Year-to-date performance: The Dow’s annual gain remains negative, but Monday’s rebound gave investors hope. If the war truly ends this week, March could become the market’s reversal month.

Oil Prices: Dropped from $120 to $90 — The Craziest Day in History

On Monday, oil markets experienced historic volatility.

WTI crude surged to $119.48 per barrel before Monday’s open but then plummeted to the $95-100 range. Brent crude also fell sharply from Sunday’s high of $119, closing around $90.

A 25% single-day drop—the largest since March 2020.

The catalyst was G7 finance ministers discussing releasing strategic petroleum reserves. Although no immediate action was announced, markets had already priced in this expectation. More importantly, Trump hinted at the Strait of Hormuz reopening, easing the chokehold on 20% of global oil supplies.

However, oil prices are still about 35% above pre-war levels. Before the conflict (Feb 27), WTI was around $66. Now, despite falling from $120, it remains in the $90-95 range, roughly 40% higher than pre-war. The market’s concern: Is the war really over? Or is it just a temporary ceasefire?

OPEC+ subtle moves: Saudi Arabia began cutting oil output on Monday, becoming another Gulf producer affected by the Hormuz crisis after Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE. Even if the war ends, restoring capacity will take time.

Gold: War Premium Eases, Breaks $5,100

On Monday, gold plunged 1.91% to $5,081 per ounce, a daily drop of $92. Silver also declined 1.16% to $83.51.

Why are safe-haven assets falling? Trump’s signals of an end to the war boosted risk appetite, prompting funds to flow out of gold into stocks and cryptocurrencies. The strengthening dollar also suppressed dollar-denominated gold prices.

But gold remains in a historically high zone. It hit a record $5,595 on January 29 this year. Although it has pulled back, it’s still up over 100% from a year ago. Long-term, geopolitical risks, inflation pressures, and Fed rate cut expectations continue to support gold.

The World Gold Council warns: If oil prices keep rising and U.S. Treasury yields climb simultaneously, gold could face structural pressure. High oil prices boost inflation expectations, potentially forcing the Fed to keep rates high, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin Holds at $67,000, Market Sentiment Cautiously Optimistic

On Monday, crypto markets remained steady.

Bitcoin hovered around $67,146, with a slight 24-hour increase. The total global crypto market cap is about $2.44 trillion, with Bitcoin’s market share at 56.8%.

Bitcoin’s performance on Monday was more stable than US stocks. Despite the V-shaped reversal in equities, Bitcoin’s intraday volatility was limited, holding above $67,000. This indicates that crypto investors are becoming less sensitive to geopolitical risks—war news no longer triggers panic selling like last week.

Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows last week (March 2-6) totaled $568 million, marking two consecutive weeks of net inflows and reversing February’s outflows. BlackRock transferred 2,200 BTC (worth $149 million) to Coinbase, showing ongoing institutional interest.

Technical outlook: Bitcoin remains in the $65,000–$75,000 range. If the war ends, oil prices fall, inflation eases, and Fed rate cut expectations rise, Bitcoin could challenge $75,000 again. But if it’s only a temporary ceasefire, markets will stay cautious.

According to Polymarket’s forecast data, the probability of Bitcoin reaching $75,000 in March is 45.5%, and by year-end, 86.5%.

Today’s Summary: War’s Dawn Sparks Rebound, But Markets Need Confirmation

On March 10, the US-Iran conflict entered its 11th day, and markets saw their first broad rebound:

US Stocks: Dow up 206 points (+0.43%), S&P 500 +0.83%, Nasdaq +1.38%. Chip stocks led, with Broadcom and AMD up over 4.6%, Nvidia +2.73%. The Dow, after a 600-point intraday plunge, reversed sharply, as investors bet on the war ending.

Oil: Dropped from $120 pre-market Sunday to $90-95, a 25% daily plunge—the biggest since March 2020. Trump hinted at the end of military operations, the Strait of Hormuz reopening, and G7 discussing strategic reserves. Still, oil remains 35-40% above pre-war levels.

Gold: Fell 1.91% to $5,081, as war premiums fade and risk appetite returns.

Cryptos: Bitcoin holds at $67,000, total market cap $2.44 trillion. Two weeks of net ETF inflows, ongoing institutional interest. Market sentiment cautiously optimistic.

The market’s only question now: Is the war truly over?

If Trump’s words are accurate and the Strait reopens fully this week, oil could fall back to $70-80, stocks could rally strongly, and the Dow could return to 48,000–49,000.

But if it’s only a temporary ceasefire, Iran might retaliate at any time, causing oil prices to spike again and markets to panic anew.

At least today, one signal is clear: investors are betting early on the war’s end. The 25% oil plunge, V-shaped stock recovery, and gold sell-off all tell you Wall Street believes the worst is over.