Everbright Futures: March 20th Ore Steel Coal Coke Daily Report

Hot Topics

Selected Stocks Data Center Market Center Capital Flows Simulated Trading

Client

Rebar:

(Qiu Yuecheng, Professional Qualification Number: F3060829; Trading Consultation Qualification Number: Z0016941)

Yesterday, rebar futures fluctuated within a narrow range. As of the close, the main contract for rebar 2605 closed at 3,135 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day’s close, a decrease of 0.16%. Open interest decreased by 65,700 lots. Spot prices slightly declined, with trading remaining low. Tangshan ordinary billet prices fell by 10 yuan/ton to 3,970 yuan/ton, and Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar prices fell by 10 yuan/ton to 3,190 yuan/ton. Nationwide construction material transactions totaled 89,900 tons. According to my steel data, this week’s nationwide rebar production increased by 80,300 tons to 2,033,300 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 31,700 tons; social inventory decreased by 13,400 tons to 6,532,100 tons, a year-on-year increase of 240,400 tons; mill inventory decreased by 34,200 tons to 2,362,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 19,300 tons; apparent demand for rebar increased by 312,800 tons to 2,080,900 tons, a year-on-year increase of 173,800 tons. Rebar production continues to rise, inventories shift from increasing to decreasing, and apparent demand significantly rebounds. The supply and demand data show a neutral to slightly bullish trend. Additionally, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, steel rebar production in China for January-February was 26.91 million tons, down 9.1% year-on-year; medium and thick steel strips totaled 34.05 million tons, down 6.7% year-on-year. Currently, the overall fundamentals of rebar supply and demand remain weak, with limited bullish momentum, and market sentiment is greatly affected by geopolitical changes in the Middle East. Short-term, rebar futures are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range.

Iron Ore:

(Liu Xi, Professional Qualification Number: F03087689; Trading Consultation Qualification Number: Z0019538)

Yesterday, the main contract for iron ore futures, i2605, declined to 807.5 yuan/ton, down 3.5 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.4%. Trading volume was 190,000 lots, with a reduction of 9,000 lots. Mainstream spot market prices at ports: 60.8% PB powder at 787 yuan, down 3; super-fine powder at 670 yuan, stable; 61.6% PB lump at 895 yuan, down 5; calcined powder at 948 yuan, down 3. Supply side: Australian shipments increased, Brazilian shipments remained stable. China’s 47 ports received 23.17 million tons, down 3.804 million tons from last week. Demand side: Six blast furnaces went into maintenance, 16 resumed production. Maintenance is concentrated in Jiangsu, Anhui, Hebei, Xinjiang, and other regions. Iron ore pig iron output increased by 69,500 tons to 2,281,500 tons. Last week, imported iron ore stocks at 47 ports totaled 17.814 million tons, down 1.3314 million tons week-on-week. The number of ships in port was 103, down 9. Week-on-week, steel mills’ inventories accumulated by 1.05 million tons. Recent geopolitical tensions have increased expectations of rising costs for iron ore. With mixed signals, short-term iron ore prices are expected to remain volatile at high levels.

Coking Coal:

(Qiu Yuecheng, Professional Qualification Number: F3060829; Trading Consultation Qualification Number: Z0016941)

Yesterday, coking coal prices rose. As of the close, the main contract for coking coal 2605 settled at 1,159.5 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton, a 0.26% increase, with open interest decreasing by 3,214 lots. Spot market: Shanxi Linfen region’s main coking coal (A9, S0.5, G85) increased by 20 yuan to an ex-factory price of 1,470 yuan/ton; Meng5#原煤1073元/吨，价格跌19；蒙3# premium coal at Ganqumou port was 1,135 yuan/ton, down 5 from last period. Supply side: stable operation of major coal mines in producing areas, sufficient coking coal supply, increased inquiries and improved transactions downstream, easing inventory pressure at coal mines. Demand side: coke steel enterprises mainly replenish stocks as needed, steel mills’ profits have recovered, but resumption remains cautious. Coke producers are cautious about high-priced resources. Short-term, coking coal prices are expected to fluctuate.

Coke:

(Qiu Yuecheng, Professional Qualification Number: F3060829; Trading Consultation Qualification Number: Z0016941)

Yesterday, coke prices declined. The main contract for coke 2605 closed at 1,721 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan/ton, a 0.03% decrease, with open interest changing by 1,278 lots. Spot market: port coke spot prices remain stable; Rizhao Port’s first-grade metallurgical coke is at 1,470 yuan/ton, unchanged. Supply side: coke producers’ costs support prices; operating rates have increased; downstream steel mills’ demand for coke is gradually rising, and shipments are good. Demand side: steel mills’ blast furnace resumption has improved profits, and operating rates are rising, boosting procurement enthusiasm. Short-term, coke prices are expected to fluctuate.

Manganese Silicon:

(Sun Chengzhen, Professional Qualification Number: F03099994; Trading Consultation Qualification Number: Z0021057)

On Thursday, manganese silicon prices fluctuated narrowly, with the main contract closing at 6,188 yuan/ton, up 0.1% week-on-week. Open interest decreased by 107,820 lots to 344,600 lots. Regional prices for 6517 manganese silicon are around 5,860–6,100 yuan/ton; Inner Mongolia’s prices dropped 30 yuan/ton from the previous day. The overall black metals sector was weak, but alloy prices remained relatively firm, and manganese silicon prices stabilized. Recent Middle East tensions continue to disturb market sentiment, with crude oil prices trending higher. Cost support remains, and traders are reluctant to sell, expecting prices to rise. Port manganese ore prices are gradually moving higher. Supply and demand: manganese silicon producers’ operating rates are stable; last week, weekly output increased by 0.9%, and Yunnan’s production slightly increased this week. Downstream steel mills increased their operating rates, with demand for manganese silicon rising by 5% week-on-week. Inventory levels at 63 sampled enterprises decreased by 11,500 tons to 375,800 tons. Overall, fundamentals are limited in contradiction; short-term manganese silicon prices are expected to fluctuate, with attention to Middle East developments.

Ferrosilicon:

(Sun Chengzhen, Professional Qualification Number: F03099994; Trading Consultation Qualification Number: Z0021057)

On Thursday, ferrosilicon prices weakened slightly, with the main contract closing at 5,824 yuan/ton, down 0.34% week-on-week. Open interest decreased by 4,646 lots to 165,200 lots. Regional prices for 72 ferrosilicon are around 5,460–5,550 yuan/ton; Ningxia prices dropped 20 yuan/ton from the previous day. The overall black metals sector was weak, and ferrosilicon prices moved slightly lower. Market sentiment is affected by Middle East tensions, with crude oil prices rising yesterday. The basic supply and demand: last week, operating rates increased slightly, weekly output rose 0.9%, but year-on-year still low. Steel mills’ demand for ferrosilicon remains supported, with weekly demand increasing by 6%. Inventory at 60 sampled enterprises decreased by 5,110 tons to 61,170 tons, at a low level in recent years. Overall, Middle East conflicts disturb market sentiment, and short-term ferrosilicon prices are expected to remain volatile, with ongoing attention to geopolitical changes.