US Market Close | Trump Says He Doesn't Want Ceasefire, Dow Down 443 Points, US Long-Term Bond Yields Hit Six-Month High, September Rate Hike Probability Reaches 40%

Iran conflict escalates; President Trump told reporters on Friday, “I don’t want a ceasefire.” Energy prices fluctuate, the Dow drops over 600 points at one point; US long-term bond yields hit a six-month high, and market expectations for a September rate hike reach 40%.

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The Dow closed down 443 points at 45,577; the S&P fell 1.51%, and the Nasdaq dropped 2.01%. Friday was quadruple witching day for US stocks. Tesla and Nvidia shares both fell 3.2%. The US accused server manufacturer Supermicro (SMCI) executives of smuggling Nvidia chips into China, causing its stock to plunge 33.3%.

According to US news site Axios, citing four sources, the Trump administration is considering occupying or blockading Kharg Island to pressure Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The island handles 90% of Iran’s oil exports. Taking control could expose US troops to more direct fire. Currently, three different Marine units are heading to the area, and the White House and Pentagon are considering deploying more troops soon.

If successful, this could ease oil prices; if not, it could escalate conflict. Markets are betting on this: Brent crude initially rose 2%, then fluctuated.

Such actions are only considered after further weakening Iran’s military presence around the Strait of Hormuz, a source familiar with White House thinking said: “We need about a month to further weaken Iran through strikes, take this island, and hold their critical points as leverage for negotiations,” they said.

Approval of the operation would require more troops. Currently, three Marine units are en route. A US official said the White House and Pentagon are considering deploying additional forces quickly.

However, inflation pressures remain high. US 10-year Treasury yields rose to 4.387%, a six-month high. The US dollar index increased 0.33% to 99.56.

CME FedWatch expects the probability of a rate hike this year to rise from about 20% on Thursday (19th) to nearly 40%.

But Fed officials continue to advocate easing. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said she still supports three rate cuts by the end of the year to support employment, though she is watching Iran’s war impact and believes it’s too early to judge.

Another Fed official, Christopher Waller, said that a closure of the Strait of Hormuz would imply greater inflationary pressures. The situation’s development is uncertain, but it doesn’t mean the Fed will stay put for the rest of the year. He said if US employment weakens, he would advocate for rate cuts later this year, and does not see a need to raise rates now.

Gold prices fluctuated, with spot gold down 3.32% at $4,496.51, the largest weekly decline since 1983; Bitcoin fell 2.73% to $69,398.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are updating constantly; see the next page for details.

Market overview:

【21:30】Trump may send troops to take Kharg Island; Dow drops 100 points; Supermicro plunges 28%

【20:00】Trump may send troops to occupy Kharg Island; Dow futures down 134 points

【15:14】Dow futures down 12 points at 46,329; S&P futures down 8 points at 6,652; Nasdaq futures down 60 points or 0.2% at 24,519

【15:04】NY oil down 1% at $94.6; Brent down 0.3% at $108.3; gold futures up 1.6% at $4,681; spot gold up 0.7% at $4,681

【15:04】【SMCI】Supermicro plunges 20% in after-hours trading; executives indicted for allegedly smuggling AI chips into China

【12:54】【Gold analysis】 Gold once tested $4,500, the weakest weekly performance in six years. Analysts say the safe-haven effect is not yet clear; short-term outlook remains weak.

【12:41】【AI + OpenAI】OpenAI plans to integrate ChatGPT, Codex, and others into a super app to simplify user experience and compete with Anthropic.

【11:19】【AI + Nvidia】Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang: AI leader should be cautious to avoid causing public panic. “Warnings are good, but scare tactics are not.”

【10:19】【Gold trend】Gold faces its largest weekly decline in six years; what is the current price per ounce?

【08:20】【Iran crisis】Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu: No more strikes on Iran’s oil and gas facilities.

【07:58】【Iran crisis】Bencet: Removing Iran’s oil sanctions could allow oil to flow outside China, affecting market prices (updating).

【07:29】【Pearl Harbor】Trump meets Sanae Takamatsu; Japanese reporter: Why was the war not announced beforehand? Trump: You didn’t tell me about Pearl Harbor either.

$1 or less — March 19 US stock market overview====

Thursday: Trump halts Israel’s attack on oil fields; crude oil surges, gold continues to fall

After attacks on Middle East oil facilities, the US took measures to increase oil supply, including possibly releasing strategic reserves, considering lifting long-standing sanctions on Iran’s oil, and approving purchases of certain Russian crude. Oil prices rose then fell: Brent hit a high of $119.13, up 10.9%, closing at $107.83; NY oil rose 5.4%, reaching $101.48, then fell 0.2% to $96.14.

▲【US stock futures】Dow futures down 12 points; Nasdaq futures down 0.2%; oil prices retreat; NY oil down 1% (updating).

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Trump wrote that “Israel will no longer attack this extremely important and valuable gas field,” and called on Iran to exercise restraint. Later, at the White House, Trump said he told them not to do so.

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen recently said the US will not intervene in oil-related financial markets but may further release oil reserves to lower prices. She admitted the US might unilaterally release strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) to suppress prices.

She also dismissed rumors that the US Treasury would intervene in oil futures markets, emphasizing that it will not do so and will not interfere in financial markets.

Global interest rate pressures pushed gold down 3.5%, closing at $4,650.02; silver fell 3.4% to $72.8251.

US stocks declined: Dow down 203 points at 46,021; S&P down 0.3% at 6,606; Nasdaq down 0.3% at 22,090.

After meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takamatsu, President Trump is expected to announce a nuclear power project in the southern US on Thursday (19th), a new initiative driven by the investment fund set up under the trade agreement. Sources say GE Vernova (GEV) and Hitachi will build BWRX-300 small modular reactors in Tennessee and Alabama, costing up to $40 billion.

Japanese investment benefits US AI industry; tech stocks narrowed losses or rose. Nvidia (US: NVDA) fell 1%; AMD (US: AMD) rose 2.9%. Alphabet (Google’s parent) declined 0.2%. Micron (US: MU) fell 3.8% after earnings; Tesla (US: TSLA) down 3.2%.

Earlier, Reuters reported that Saudi Defense said a ballistic missile was intercepted over Yanbu, causing a temporary halt in oil loading at Yanbu port, which then resumed. The Defense Ministry also said a drone crashed at the SAMREF refinery (a key Yanbu oil facility), and damage assessment is ongoing.

Iran previously said that after attacks on its natural gas fields, the Yanbu-based South Pars refinery was one of the energy facilities targeted.

Additionally, Qatar’s largest LNG export facility and the UAE’s gas fields have been attacked. Kuwait’s energy facilities were also hit, escalating Middle East tensions.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are updating; see the next page for details.

Market overview:

【23:05】US and Japan to jointly build a nuclear project in the US south, with $40 billion investment; Micron’s decline narrows to 2%

【21:30】US will not intervene in oil markets but may release reserves; May Brent crude up 5%, gold plunges 6%, Dow down 302 points

【20:55】Yellen: US may unilaterally release oil reserves but will not intervene in markets

【17:55】Iran bombs Saudi oil plant; Brent crude jumps 10% to $120; Dow futures down 42 points

【14:11】Dow futures down 10 points at 46,525; S&P futures down 4 points at 6,672; Nasdaq futures down 43 points or 0.2% at 24,608

【13:34】【MU analysis】 Micron reports after-hours drop over 4%; analysis: “This quarter’s earnings are equivalent to a full year’s profit,” and increased capital expenditure is a double-edged sword.

【13:16】【US stock analysis】Powell’s hawkish tone causes Dow to plunge over 700 points; is oil price a good indicator for bottoming?

【12:18】【Fed meeting】A review of Fed’s March rate decision; Aberdeen estimates only one rate cut in September.

【11:13】【Yen trend】Bank of Japan keeps rates unchanged as expected; USD/JPY at 4.91.

【10:44】【Oil trend】Brent surpasses $110; if tensions escalate, $120 could be the new starting point.

【10:37】【US stock focus】Major reform: SEC approves Nasdaq’s “security tokenization” trial.

【10:11】【AI + chips】Elon Musk: a big fan of Nvidia and Jensen Huang; SpaceX AI and Tesla plan to order Nvidia chips on a large scale.

【08:47】【Gold trend】Gold stabilizes around $4,800 after six days of decline, slightly rebounding.

【07:42】【AI + MU】Micron’s strong earnings, up 4% post-earnings, with capital spending expected to double in H2.

【07:01】【Iran crisis】Oil facilities targeted mutually; Israel strikes Iran’s oil and gas fields, Iran retaliates against US energy assets in Middle East (updating).

【06:29】【Fed meeting】Powell: Will remain Chair until successor is appointed; uncertain about Iran war impact; dot plot indicates one rate cut in 2026 and 2027.

$1 or less — March 16 US stock market overview====

Wednesday: Dow drops 768 points to lowest this year; Powell: Rising energy prices boost inflation expectations

Fed holds steady; expects one rate cut this year and next. Middle East conflict has pushed oil prices up nearly 50% this month. Powell emphasized that if inflation shows no progress, no rate cuts will be considered. He warned that rising energy prices could raise overall inflation expectations. After his comments, the Dow fell 800 points.

The Dow closed down 768 points at 46,225; S&P down 1.36%; Nasdaq down 1.46%.

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Iran conflict temporarily escalates; Iran’s oil and gas fields targeted for the first time. Iran retaliates, attacking US assets at Riyadh refinery, causing a large fire.

Iran’s state TV reports US and Israel attacked its South Pars gas field in the Persian Gulf. Markets worry about continued attacks on Iran’s oil fields. Brent crude initially surged 6.3%, reaching $109.95; gold fell 3.4%, to $4,834.51.

Iran’s National Gas Company later announced the South Pars fire was extinguished, and oil prices eased. Trump previously said, “The only thing we haven’t destroyed is their oil, because destroying it would take years to rebuild.”

Iran reports that on Wednesday, it retaliated with airstrikes, successfully hitting US refinery assets near Riyadh, causing explosions and fires. Iran also attacked oil and gas facilities in the UAE and Qatar.

NY oil fell as much as 4.4%, then rebounded 3.33%, closing at $96.32, up slightly; Brent settled at $107.38, up 3.8%.

Fed Chair Powell held a press conference Wednesday, saying if he remains Fed Chair after his term ends in May, he will serve as interim until a new Chair is confirmed.

Economic data: US February PPI rose 3.4% YoY, above expectations of 3% and previous 2.9%; MoM up 0.7%, above 0.5%. Core PPI rose 3.9% YoY, above 3.7% forecast and 3.6% in January; MoM up 0.5%, above 0.3%.

Nuveen notes that recent geopolitical shocks have led markets to reassess the risk of tightening monetary policy, but it’s premature. They say markets mainly focus on inflation channels, often ignoring the negative growth impact of rising energy prices. With inflation near target in many developed markets and economic growth slowing, policymakers may adopt a wait-and-see approach rather than resuming rate hikes.

They believe current inflation environment differs from post-pandemic aggressive tightening. While commodity prices may temporarily boost inflation, the overall effect is complex: rising energy costs can suppress real income and demand. Oil shocks are more likely to delay disinflation rather than restart a sustained inflation cycle.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are updating; see the next page for details.

Market overview:

【17:55】Before Fed rate decision, Dow futures up 257 points; Nasdaq futures up 0.7%; Micron (MU) earnings after close.

【16:45】【AI + SpaceX】Elon Musk: SpaceX will become AI leader in a few years, surpassing “everyone combined.”

【16:25】【AI + Nvidia】Huang Jensen: OpenClaw is definitely the next ChatGPT, greatly expanding personal AI use.

【14:03】Dow futures up 217 points at 47,565; S&P futures up 31 at 6,804; Nasdaq futures up 151 or 0.6% at 25,166.

【13:53】【Iran crisis】S&P warns: Continued conflict could cause Gulf banks to face over $2 trillion in deposit outflows.

【13:15】【AI + Meta】China reportedly punishing Meta’s Manus acquisition personnel, possibly restricting senior executives from leaving China.

【13:05】【Iran crisis】Citi expects Brent to rise to $110–120; how to end the oil rally?

【12:34】【US IPO】Swarmer supported by AI drone and defense concepts; IPO surges 5.2x on debut, +44% after hours.

【12:26】【AI + MU】Micron’s earnings up 4% post-earnings, market cap over $500 billion; analysts say momentum resembles Nvidia’s past, $1,000 target not far.

【11:28】【AI + Risks】Howard Marks of Oak Tree Capital: AI makes the world less predictable; investors underestimate AI’s impact.

【11:09】【AMD】AMD’s Su Zifeng to visit Samsung’s Pyeongtaek chip plant, discuss expanding wafer manufacturing, dine with Lee Jae-yong.

【10:42】【Iran crisis】UAE Central Bank to strengthen banking stability; forex reserves over $270 billion, ready with policy tools.

【10:27】【AI + Amazon】Amazon CEO: Cloud revenue from AWS could reach $600 billion in 10 years, double previous estimates.

【10:26】【Xi-Trump meeting】Trump: Visit to China postponed about 5-6 weeks; “Both sides are rescheduling.”

【10:16】【Gold trend】Gold holds steady around $5,000 ahead of Fed decision; focus on Fed’s view on energy prices and labor market.

【09:50】【New IPO】OpenAI reportedly to go public as early as Q4.

【08:40】【AI + Nvidia】Nvidia preparing to launch Groq AI chips in China; Huang: restarting H200 production.

【07:26】【Tencent Music earnings】TME stock plunges 25%, despite strong earnings and increased dividends.

【07:17】【Iran crisis】Iran’s second-in-command, Laijani, killed by Israel; highest-level assassination since Khomeini (updating).

【07:00】【Parent company】Hong Kong’s Baby Kingdom withdraws US IPO application; likely to trigger tech park rent subsidy swap deal.

$1 or less — March 17 US stock market overview====

Tuesday: Iran intensifies attacks on Middle East energy facilities; oil jumps 3%; Trump to visit China in 5 weeks

Iran retaliates; drone strikes hit multiple Middle East sites. Trump calls for escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz; lack of international response. Oil rises 3%. Brent hits $103.61; NY oil $96.01.

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Trump told reporters at the White House that he expects to visit China in about five weeks. “We are working with China; they have no problem with this. I look forward to seeing President Xi. We have good relations. China has become very beneficial to us economically, very different from before.”

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said he has obtained approval to sell H200 AI accelerators to many Chinese customers, and is ramping up production of H200 chips for China, “restarting production.” Nvidia’s GTC conference runs through Thursday; stock down 0.7%, at $181.93.

UAE’s largest ultra-acidic natural gas project was hit by a drone, causing a fire at Fujairah Oil Industry Zone, affecting loading operations. Also, the Shah gas field in Abu Dhabi, with a daily output of 1.28 billion cubic feet, was attacked by a drone and remains shut down.

Iran has increased attacks on Saudi Arabia, firing nearly 100 drones—far more than the usual 25 per day—marking the largest single-day strike since the war began. As conflict continues, Iran relies more on low-cost drones rather than missiles, posing ongoing challenges to air defenses.

Another oil tanker was attacked near the strategic Strait of Hormuz.

Markets are awaiting the Fed’s weekly rate decision; the dollar index fell 0.1% to 99.58; US 10-year yields at 4.2%.

US stocks rebounded weakly: Dow rose 46 points to 46,993; S&P up 0.2% at 6,716; Nasdaq up 0.5% at 22,479.

President Trump previously asked European, Japanese, and Korean allies to help secure shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, but some are reluctant. He criticized some allies for long-term US protection, saying they wouldn’t help if the US needed assistance.

Trump posted on Truth Social: “Most NATO allies have told us they don’t want to get involved in our Middle East actions against the Iranian regime. Almost all agree with what we’re doing and believe Iran must not have nuclear weapons in any way or form.

But I’m not surprised. We spend hundreds of billions annually protecting these countries, but I’ve always believed NATO is a ‘one-way street’—we protect them, but they don’t do anything for us, especially when we need help.

Fortunately, we have defeated Iran’s military—no navy, no air force, no air defenses, and no radar left. Perhaps most importantly, almost all their leaders are gone, unable to threaten us or our Middle East allies anymore.

Because of our military success, we no longer ‘need’ or desire NATO’s help—we never did! Same with Japan, Australia, or South Korea.

In fact, as the world’s most powerful nation, I want to say we don’t need anyone’s help!”

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are updating; see the next page for details.

Market overview:

【21:31】Dow opens up 375 points at 47,321; Nasdaq up 0.6%; S&P up 44 points.

【19:37】Dow futures up 21; Nasdaq futures down 0.1%; S&P futures down 1.

【14:05】Oil rebounds, Brent up over 4% to $104.8.

【13:48】Dow futures down 150 at 47,139; S&P down 23 at 6,732; Nasdaq down 97 or 0.4% at 24,794.

【13:25】【AI + software】Morgan Stanley: AI disrupts software industry; private credit default rate may rise to 8%.

【13:19】【Iran crisis】Korea’s Sinokor shipping: Using super-large oil tankers, earning $500,000 daily.

【13:16】【Oil trend】Oil prices rebound in Asian trading, Brent above $100; analysts say volatility is “pulsed,” unlikely to stay high long-term amid rising supply.

【12:52】【Iran crisis】Australia’s RBA raises rates 25 basis points to 4.1%; warns sustained fuel prices could push inflation higher.

【11:46】【Fed chair】Court documents show Powell may stay on as Chair until a successor is confirmed; ongoing criminal investigation.

【11:23】【AI + chips】AI demand surges! SK Group Chairman Choi Tae-yoon: Global chip shortage may last until 2030.

【10:44】【Nvidia】Nvidia partners with BYD, Geely to develop Level 4 autonomous vehicles.

【10:22】【Yen trend】USD/JPY drops to 4.9; Japan’s finance minister reaffirms yen support; analysts say BOJ’s no-rate hike stance keeps yen weak.

【09:42】【Gold trend】Gold stabilizes near $5,000; USD weakens; market assesses emergency oil reserve releases.

【08:42】【US rate cuts】Morgan Stanley expects the Fed to resume rate cuts in June and again in September, despite oil price surge.

【08:25】【Apple】Apple launches AirPods Max 2, pre-order at ¥4,599, five colors; upgraded H2 chip, noise cancellation 1.5x better.

【08:01】【AI + recruitment】Elon Musk’s xAI hiring bankers, credit experts to boost Grok finance capabilities.

【07:47】【Xi-Trump meeting】Trump delays visit to China by about 5-6 weeks, citing ongoing war and no tricks.

【07:28】【AI + Nvidia】Huang Huang: Nvidia’s NemoClaw “lobster farming” with sandbox and security features, adding safety.

【07:03】【AI + Nvidia】Huang Huang: chip revenue could reach $1 trillion by 2027; maybe even too conservative.

【06:31】【Iran crisis】Trump: I don’t know who the Iranian leaders are; no one says Mujehtaba is 100% healthy; very unusual (updating).

$1 or less — March 16 US stock market overview====

Monday: Oil drops over 2%; Dow rises 387; Trump delays China visit by a month

US dollar and oil prices decline; NY oil down 5.3% to $93.5; Brent down 2.4% to $100.66; dollar index down 0.6% to 99.8; 10-year Treasury yield drops 0.06 to 4.216%.

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As G7 nations begin releasing strategic oil reserves, short-term supply is ample, but Iran’s ongoing crisis still troubles markets. Trump announced he postponed his China trip by about a month, citing the importance of directing the Iran war from Washington. The delay reflects Trump’s expectations for the war’s duration.

The Dow rose 387 points, closing at 46,946; the S&P gained 1%, closing at 6,699; the Nasdaq up 1.2%, at 22,374.

Foreign media PBS reports Trump said Iran is not yet ready for a deal, and that once the war ends, oil prices will fall rapidly like a rolling stone. He believes the war won’t last long. He also said Iran has extensive infrastructure in Tehran that could be destroyed within an hour, but doing so would require years of rebuilding and cause trauma, so he prefers to avoid it. He also mentioned he doesn’t want to damage pipelines on the gas-rich Kharg Island, as destruction would require years to reconnect.

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told CNBC that the US doesn’t mind some Iranian, Indian, and Chinese ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, considering Iran’s release of ships a natural opening, and hopes global oil supply remains sufficient. She said any measures to ease oil prices depend on how long the Iran conflict continues.

Key stocks: Nvidia (US: NVDA) up 2.6%, closing at $184.93, after Huang’s GTC speech.

Data center company Nebius (US: NBIS) up 15.4%, announced it will provide $12 billion of dedicated computing capacity for Meta (US: META) starting early 2027. Meta also plans to buy up to $15 billion more capacity. Meta rose 1.9%.

This week: US February PPI data on Tuesday; Federal Reserve rate decision on Thursday early morning. Major central banks including ECB, BoE, and BOJ will also hold meetings. Micron (US: MU) reports earnings Wednesday after market close.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are updating; see the next page for details.

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Market overview:

【22:55】Trump: Once war ends, oil prices will fall sharply; Dow up 393, oil down 1%

【21:30】Yellen: US doesn’t mind China ships passing through Hormuz; Dow up 369, oil down 1%

【18:50】Middle East enters third week of war; Dow futures up 152, Nasdaq futures up 0.7%; this week is a “super rate decision week”

【13:47】Dow futures up 226 at 47,112; S&P futures up 39 at 6,724; Nasdaq futures up 147 or 0.6% at 24,753

【12:59】【AI + chips】Tesla to build own chips? Elon Musk announces launch of “Terafab” AI chip factory

【12:06】【AI + Gemini】Gemini now available in Hong Kong! Google to expand Gemini to all Hong Kong users, starting with web version, mobile app later

【11:07】【Xi-Trump meeting】Trump: “Possible to delay” meeting with Xi Jinping by about 5-6 weeks

【10:14】【Iran crisis】IEA: Over 400 million barrels of emergency oil reserves soon to be released, prioritizing Asia; Europe and US wait until late March

【19:28】【Gold trend】Gold drops below $5,000; Middle East war enters third week, oil prices continue rising

【11:36】【Iran crisis】US Energy Secretary: Cannot guarantee oil prices will fall in a few weeks; after attacking military facilities, will target the Strait (updating)

【07:30】【Global outlook】This week is a “super rate decision week”; Fed expected to keep rates steady Thursday

【07:30】Middle East tensions rise again; US stocks fell last Friday; Dow slightly higher at open, then rose as much as 446 points, then fell back 183 points, closing at 46,558; down 119 points overall, S&P down 0.61%, Nasdaq down 0.93%.

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