【Peripheral Weekly Preview】Continue Monitoring Middle East Situation　Pay Attention to Federal Reserve Officials' Comments　U.S. Manufacturing PMI for March to be Released on Tuesday

SocialAnxietyStaker · 2026-03-22T21:37:50+00:00

The Middle East war has entered its fourth week with no signs of ceasefire, as markets focus on its impact on oil prices and the U.S. economy, particularly statements from Federal Reserve officials. CERAWeek will explore the impact of Middle East conflicts on energy markets. As oil prices rise, 10-year Treasury yields have increased, putting pressure on stocks. U.S. equities have fallen for four consecutive weeks, and market conditions remain pessimistic.

SocialAnxietyStaker

2026-03-22 21:37:50

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The Middle East war enters its fourth week, with no signs of a ceasefire in sight. It will continue to be a market focus and trigger intense volatility. As the conflict persists, the market is increasingly concerned about high oil prices’ impact on U.S. inflation and the economy, raising fears of changing interest rate expectations. Therefore, statements from Federal Reserve officials are worth watching.

This week, three Fed governors—Lisa Cook, Philip Jefferson, and Michael Barr—will deliver speeches. Additionally, Mary Daly, President and CEO of the San Francisco Fed, will speak; she does not have voting rights in this year’s FOMC.

International oil prices are also a market focus. The annual global energy industry event, CERAWeek, will be held in Houston from Monday (23rd) to Friday (27th). Many oil company executives and industry experts will give speeches, likely discussing the impact of the Middle East conflict on energy prices, production, and supply, as well as future outlooks.

UBS states that the latest developments in the Middle East are prompting the market to price in the risk of prolonged conflict, deeper infrastructure damage, and sustained high oil prices. Although there is still a possibility of less destructive scenarios in the Strait of Hormuz, recent events have reduced this likelihood and increased the risk of ongoing market volatility.

Due to soaring energy prices and cautious global central banks, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has risen. Keith Lerner, Chief Investment Officer at Truist Advisory Services, said he is closely monitoring the 10-year yield, which has continued to rise above 4.3%, potentially putting more pressure on the stock market, with 4.5% seen as a key level.

There is no major U.S. economic data this week, except for the release of the March Manufacturing PMI preliminary reading on Tuesday (24th), expected at 51.2, down from 51.6 in January.

U.S. stocks have fallen for four consecutive weeks, with the Dow dropping 981 points last week, the Nasdaq down 2.1%, and the S&P 500 down 125 points.

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