How Will Oil Prices Break Above $100 Affect Every Ordinary Person

Ask AI · How does rising oil prices gradually affect the prices of groceries for ordinary families?

Reporter Wang Yajie

As of early morning Beijing time on March 19, 2026, ICE Brent crude oil May contracts closed at $107.38 per barrel, up 3.83% for the day, with a high of $110.28 per barrel during trading—breaking the $100 mark; NYMEX WTI crude oil April contracts closed at $96.32 per barrel, also reaching a new phase high.

The rapid breakthrough of oil prices past $100 was directly triggered by escalating Middle East geopolitical conflicts, with Iran and surrounding oil-producing countries’ energy facilities impacted. About 30% of global maritime crude oil trade routes through the Strait of Hormuz saw a significant reduction in shipping flow, releasing concentrated supply-side risks.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) released its monthly oil market report in March warning that the global oil market is facing the most significant supply disruptions in recent years, with geopolitical risk premiums becoming the dominant factor influencing international energy prices.

From the perspective of commodity transmission laws, crude oil, as the “mother of industry” and “mother of chemicals,” when its price breaks the $100 threshold, the impact will not stay confined to futures markets and institutional research reports. Instead, it will cascade through multiple chains—refined oil products, logistics, chemicals, agriculture, consumer goods—gradually transmitting to every capillary of the national economy.

As oil prices fluctuate and people discuss breaking the $100 mark, truck drivers are checking fuel bills, community supermarket owners are adjusting prices based on procurement lists, chemical plant operators are monitoring production line loads—these everyday scenes collectively depict the livelihood landscape under oil prices above $100.

Truck Driver Lao Zhou: Profits in the Tank Are Being Drained Little by Little by Oil Prices

Lao Zhou, 45, from Anhui, has been engaged in highway freight for 12 years, currently running a main route from East China to South China.

A six-axle heavy-duty truck is not only his livelihood tool but also the sole support for his entire family. His wife cares for the elderly and their high school-aged children back home in Anhui. His parents are elderly with chronic illnesses requiring long-term medication. Mortgage, living expenses, tuition, medical costs—all are borne by him and this truck.

On March 19 at noon, at a gas station in a highway service area in Guangdong, Lao Zhou filled his tank, and the final meter read 2,360 yuan. He frowned tightly.

“Last week, at the same station, filling up the same way, it was just over 2,100 yuan. It’s only been a few days, and now it’s over 200 yuan more.”

The diesel price has risen to 7.8 yuan per liter, up from 7.0 yuan a week ago.

According to the current pricing mechanism of the National Development and Reform Commission, the price is calculated over a 10-working-day cycle. This cycle started on March 10, and by March 19, it was within the calculation window for the March 23 midnight price adjustment, with a clear expectation of an increase due to the sharp daily surge in international oil prices.

Based on the latest estimates from multiple bulk commodity agencies including Zhuochuang Information, Jilianchuang, and Longzhong Information, domestic gasoline and diesel prices are expected to increase by 1,750 to 2,100 yuan per ton at the March 23 midnight mark. This translates to approximately 1.36 to 1.60 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline and about 1.45 to 1.70 yuan per liter for No. 0 diesel. The final adjustment will be subject to official announcement from the National Development and Reform Commission.

After the next price adjustment, Lao Zhou’s operating costs will further rise.

His six-axle truck consumes about 38 liters per 100 km. The one-way trip from Shanghai to Guangzhou is roughly 1,400 km, costing nearly 2,200 yuan in fuel alone. With international oil prices breaking the $100 mark and the current price adjustment expectations, the fuel cost for a single trip has increased by about 260 to 300 yuan compared to before the price surge. He makes about 12 trips a month, so just in fuel costs alone, he will spend an extra 3,200 yuan monthly.

“Freight rates haven’t gone up at all, but the market’s supply is even scarcer than last year,” Lao Zhou records his income and expenses in a paper ledger.

He told reporters that previously, running the same route with the same cargo, after deducting fuel, tolls, parking, and meals, each trip netted him about 1,200 to 1,500 yuan. Now, with diesel prices rising continuously and costs like tolls, vehicle maintenance, and tire wear also high, each trip’s net profit has shrunk to 500–600 yuan—cut in half.

Industry data shows that fuel costs account for 35%–40% of total road logistics costs, making it the second-largest expense after tolls.

Zhuochuang Information logistics analyst estimates that a 10% increase in oil prices reduces the gross profit margin of small and medium logistics companies and individual drivers by an average of 3–5 percentage points. Throughout the industry chain, individual drivers are the most vulnerable; upstream shippers push prices down, downstream markets do not raise prices, squeezing profit margins continuously.

Faced with rising oil prices, Lao Zhou has to be more meticulous, adjusting his long-standing driving habits.

For example, he used to rest during long trips with the air conditioning on all night. Now, to save fuel, he turns it off after two hours of parking; he used to stop at service areas for hot meals, but now he mostly brings instant noodles and dry food; he used to pick up scattered cargo on return trips to increase income, but now he only takes direct, non-detour orders to reduce fuel and time costs.

When asked if he’s aware of recent international news about Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, and whether he knows these events pushed up international oil prices, Lao Zhou said, “I’ve seen Iran and Hormuz in news on my phone, but I don’t really understand what’s happening, and I don’t have the energy to research. I just know that when there’s trouble over there, international oil prices go up, and our domestic diesel prices follow. We truck drivers, our costs just go up.”

In Lao Zhou’s view, those distant international affairs are beyond his control, but they do affect whether he can make money daily, pay his mortgage on time each month, and cover his children’s tuition and his parents’ medication.

His biggest worry now isn’t just spending a few hundred more yuan on fuel, but the possibility that “running a trip at a loss” might become a reality someday.

In the highway freight industry, the fuel tank is like a driver’s wallet—every throttle consumes real profits.

“If diesel prices go up again, I really won’t make any money on this trip,” Lao Zhou says. He doesn’t think he’s worrying unnecessarily. To some truck owners, breaking the $100 mark might just mean paying a few extra tens of yuan at the pump, but for drivers like him, rising diesel prices are like “stealing food from their bowls”—a survival pressure, a real anxiety that family income and expenses are being disrupted.

Supermarket Owner Sister Li: Price Hikes on Shelves Make Customers Hesitate

Li, 46, runs a 120-square-meter fresh produce supermarket in a large, mature community in Beijing’s Chaoyang District’s East Fifth Ring Road, now in her eighth year of operation.

This store is her and her husband’s entire effort, serving residents from three nearby neighborhoods. Over the years, she has become highly sensitive to changes in product costs, price fluctuations, and customer shopping habits.

In early March, international crude oil futures briefly surged above $100 per barrel, catching Li’s attention.

On March 19, as oil prices again broke the $100 mark, Li sat at the checkout counter during her lunch break, studying her suppliers’ delivery orders: compared to before the March 9 domestic oil price hike, wholesale prices for eggs increased by 0.8 yuan per jin, local and external vegetable prices rose an average of 12%, plastic bags, cling film, and food packaging boxes increased by 15%, and daily necessities like dish soap, laundry detergent, and toilet paper rose by 8%–10%. These price increases are not solely due to the short-term surge in international oil prices but are driven by a combination of expectations of two domestic fuel price adjustments since March, tight supply chains at production sites, and rising logistics costs.

These seemingly scattered price hikes reveal a clear and orderly cost transmission chain.

On March 9 at midnight, domestic refined oil prices were adjusted upward, with gasoline and diesel increasing by 695 yuan and 670 yuan per ton respectively. The price of No. 0 diesel rose about 0.57 yuan per liter nationwide, directly raising cold chain logistics and local delivery costs, which quickly reflected in the prices of vegetables, fruits, and fresh produce—items with quick turnover. Meanwhile, rising international oil prices also pushed up the prices of basic chemical raw materials like naphtha, ethylene, and propylene, which are the core raw materials for plastics, packaging, and daily chemical products. As raw material costs increased, they gradually transmitted to end consumer goods.

According to Zhuochuang’s weekly chemical industry data released on March 19, prices of general plastics like polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) rose 12%–18% since early March, directly increasing packaging costs; fresh produce cold chain transportation costs also increased by 10%–15%, with rising logistics costs reflected in higher vegetable and fresh produce prices.

Li’s store ledger records the most authentic operational changes. Before the oil price hike, her store’s daily turnover was stable at around 8,500 yuan. After deducting rent, utilities, procurement costs, and labor, her net daily profit was about 1,100 yuan. Over the past two weeks, as procurement costs continued to rise, her daily turnover has fallen to 7,200 yuan, and profits have declined. When asked how much her daily profit has dropped, she simply said, “No need to talk about it.”

Her concern is that if costs keep rising and she raises prices accordingly, her regular customers might leave; if she doesn’t raise prices, she’ll have to bear all the increased costs herself, eating into her profits.

She’s also afraid to raise prices too much, or customers might go to the nearby chain supermarket instead. So she only makes small price adjustments.

When asked about her views on the Iran situation, the Strait of Hormuz, and international oil prices breaking the $100 mark, Li said she usually watches short videos and news, knows there’s conflict in the Middle East, and that oil prices have risen, but she never thought that conflicts thousands of miles away would directly impact her small community supermarket.

“I don’t understand all that chemical industry chain and transmission logic. I only know that when international oil prices go up, my procurement costs go up, packaging costs go up, transportation costs go up—everything goes up, and business gets harder and harder.”

Her biggest fear isn’t short-term price increases but the ongoing high costs and declining customer flow.

Chemical Plant Worker Wang Lei: Production Slows, Bonuses First to Drop

Wang Lei, 29, from Zhejiang, works as a frontline operator at a medium-sized chemical company, with seven years of experience.

His company mainly produces polypropylene and polyethylene, which are highly dependent on naphtha as raw materials. Naphtha prices are directly linked to international crude oil, following a typical “oil-to-chemical” route.

He has received an official notice from his team leader: due to sharp increases in raw material costs and weak downstream orders, the company’s two small production lines are operating at reduced capacity, with some sections implementing shift work. This notice cast a somber mood over the entire workshop.

The industry’s straightforward cost logic is clear: rapid rises in international oil prices lead to soaring naphtha procurement costs—up nearly 300 yuan per ton in a single day—while downstream demand from plastic, home appliance, and packaging companies remains weak. As a result, product prices cannot be adjusted upward in tandem, creating a “cost increase, selling price unchanged” inverted situation, pushing companies into a “more production, more losses” danger zone.

Industry estimates, aligned with data from the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation, show that the cost break-even point for domestic oil-dependent chemical companies is around $80 per barrel Brent crude. When oil exceeds $90, industry cost pressures become evident; above $100, small and medium chemical companies without integrated refining capacity see gross profit margins compressed below 3%, with some general plastics even incurring losses.

Wang Lei’s income consists of base salary, performance bonuses, and output bonuses, with bonuses accounting for nearly 40%. After capacity reductions, overall production has declined, and his performance and output bonuses have been affected.

“Before, I earned over 7,000 yuan a month. This month, I probably won’t even reach 4,500 yuan.”

Wang Lei and his wife share household expenses. His fixed monthly costs include a mortgage of 3,200 yuan and a car loan of 1,500 yuan. When income was stable at over 7,000 yuan, deducting fixed expenses still left some savings. Now, with income dropping to around 4,500 yuan, the impact on family finances is significant.

When asked if he understands the connection between Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and the breaking of $100 oil prices, Wang Lei said he has a clearer understanding than most. Company meetings and team briefings have repeatedly mentioned that raw materials are linked to international crude oil, and that Middle East instability pushes oil prices higher, increasing costs. He knows the Strait of Hormuz is a key oil transit route, and disruptions there will ripple through the global chemical industry.

On the evening of March 19, Wang Lei added, “We workers don’t understand macroeconomics much. We just hope oil prices stay steady, raw material costs come down a bit, and the production lines keep running smoothly so we can work steadily and earn honestly.”