"Scattered pieces" emerge as dark horse, ZTO maintains 19.4% market share in 2025; Express industry accelerates consolidation: top six enterprises' concentration breaks through 80%

How can AI parcel business become the second growth curve for Zhongtong Express?

By Chen Ting, Daily Economic News; Edited by Wei Wenyi

In 2025, Zhongtong Express (HK02057, stock price 196.4 HKD, market value 151.208 billion HKD; hereafter “Zhongtong Express”) experienced a somewhat volatile year.

On March 18, Zhongtong Express announced its unaudited financial results for Q4 and the full year of 2025. The financial report shows that in 2025, Zhongtong Express achieved total revenue of approximately 49.099 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 10.9%; adjusted net profit of about 9.513 billion RMB; and a parcel volume increase of 4.5 billion pieces, with total parcels rising 13.3% year-over-year to 385.2 billion pieces.

Source: Zhongtong Express announcement

During the earnings call, Lai Meisong, founder, chairman, and CEO of Zhongtong Express Group, mentioned that the parcel volume of loose items continued to rise throughout 2025, reaching an average of 9.8 million parcels per day in Q4, a year-over-year increase of over 38%.

Lai also stated that the overall express delivery industry is shifting towards a development model that emphasizes both volume and quality. “Relying solely on low prices to drive scale growth is neither sustainable nor economical. For business models with significant scale effects, this fundamental shift helps accelerate the industry’s move away from fierce price competition toward a new stage where capabilities win customers, further promoting industry consolidation.”

The Daily Economic News (hereafter “the reporter”) notes that Zhongtong Express in 2025 moved forward amid fluctuations: the average revenue per parcel in Q2 slightly decreased by 0.06 RMB year-over-year, in Q3 it increased by 0.02 RMB, and in Q4 it grew by 2.9%, reaching 1.35 RMB.

Source: Zhongtong Express Q4 2025 Investor Presentation (unit: RMB per parcel)

In 2025, Zhongtong Express held a 19.4% market share, unchanged from 2024, maintaining the industry’s number one position for ten consecutive years.

Emergence of loose parcel business, “second growth curve” taking shape

In Q4 2025, Zhongtong Express handled 10.558 billion parcels, up 9.2% from 9.665 billion in the same period of 2024; adjusted net profit was 2.695 billion RMB.

Lai Meisong said that in Q4 2025, the continued implementation of anti-inflation policies effectively curbed extreme low-price phenomena in the industry. Zhongtong’s parcel volume growth outpaced the industry average, meeting expectations.

CFO Yan Huiping stated that in Q4 2025, core parcel revenue increased by 2.9%, mainly due to higher per-parcel prices from direct customers, effectively offsetting the negative impact of increased subsidies in other core business segments. Additionally, quarterly operating cash flow was 4.2 billion RMB, with capital expenditures of 1.8 billion RMB.

For the full year, revenue from Zhongtong’s core parcel business grew from 43.395 billion RMB in the year ending December 31, 2024, to 48.291 billion RMB in 2025, an increase of 11.3%. This is the result of a 13.3% increase in parcel volume combined with a 1.7% decline in average revenue per parcel.

As of December 31, 2025, Zhongtong Express had over 31,000 outlets, 93 sorting centers, and more than 6,000 direct network partners; approximately 3,800 trunk routes, with over 10,000 trunk vehicles, including more than 9,700 high-capacity vehicles measuring 15 to 17 meters in length.

The reporter notes that Lai mentioned during the call that in 2025, Zhongtong’s loose parcel volume grew by 46% year-over-year, far exceeding the overall growth rate of e-commerce parcels.

Financial data shows that in 2025, Zhongtong’s loose parcel volume continued to rise, reaching an average of 9.8 million parcels per day in Q4, a year-over-year increase of over 38%.

Regarding Zhongtong’s 2025 financial results, logistics expert Zhao Xiaomin told the reporter that the data indicates a “dual increase in volume and profit” for Zhongtong Express. “In terms of loose parcel scale, it is expected that by 2026, the daily average could reach 10 million parcels, making the second growth curve for Zhongtong increasingly apparent.”

Zhao believes that in the long term, based on e-commerce parcels as the foundation, loose parcels will contribute more profit and may bring premium effects to Zhongtong’s pricing power.

Based on current market conditions and operational status, Zhongtong Express expects its total parcel volume in 2026 to be between 42.37 billion and 43.52 billion, representing a year-over-year growth of 10% to 13%.

Anti-inflation policies take effect, industry concentration among top six firms exceeds 80%

Lai said during the call that in 2025, China’s overall express delivery industry grew steadily by 13.6%, reaching a volume of 2 trillion parcels.

“In Q3 2025, relevant national departments strongly advocated against internal competition and reinforced basic livelihood protections, establishing a direction for healthy and sustainable industry development. The overall market price level stabilized and rebounded, and the industry shifted from pursuing quantity to a new stage emphasizing both volume and quality.”

Lai believes that as leading companies continue to return to their intrinsic value, the industry landscape will continue to differentiate and increase in concentration.

The reporter notes that Zhongtong’s investor presentation in Q4 2025 mentioned that the Chinese express delivery market is moving toward consolidation, with the top six companies holding 71.4% of the market share before 2011, and 80.5% in 2025.

Source: Zhongtong Express Q4 2025 Investor Presentation

So far, the “anti-inflation” effect in the industry has begun to show.

A recent research report from Huachuang Securities indicates that, based on monthly data from the State Post Bureau, since the industry’s lowest point of 7.36 RMB per parcel in July 2025, the average price recovered to 7.63 RMB in December 2025, an increase of 0.27 RMB.

Against this backdrop, Zhongtong Express has already set its next development focus.

Lai mentioned during the call that Zhongtong will focus on strengthening transfer and last-mile capabilities, continuously optimizing network policies for fairness and transparency, and solidifying trust and confidence in the network.

He added that the company will improve network policies and incentive mechanisms, focus on steady business volume growth and cost efficiency, analyze details in lagging regions, and ensure effective sharing mechanisms.

Zhao believes that franchise-based courier companies should prioritize network stability; only with stable outlets can they enjoy higher profits. “Currently, Zhongtong has shifted from prioritizing scale and efficiency to prioritizing ecological security. Other franchise courier companies need to catch up quickly to avoid falling behind in industry competition.”

Huachuang Securities also pointed out that the competition in the express industry is shifting from “price wars” to “cost-effectiveness/service quality”: after anti-inflation, the decline in per-parcel revenue has narrowed, with limited room for price cuts. Service quality will determine market share and profits, industry segmentation will continue, market share will further concentrate, and leading companies will maintain advantages.

It’s worth noting that in 2024, Zhongtong’s market share temporarily declined. When releasing its Q2 2025 financial report, Lai openly described the fierce price wars in the industry. However, with the promotion of anti-inflation measures in the second half of 2025, extreme low-price phenomena were curbed, and Zhongtong successfully maintained its market share.

Nevertheless, this does not mean Zhongtong can rest easy. Whether it can further increase its market share in 2026 remains a key point to watch.

Disclaimer: The content and data in this article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Please verify before acting. Use at your own risk.

Daily Economic News