Dutch ING: Middle East conflict heightens upside risk for aluminum prices

K-LinePoet · 2026-03-22T22:15:33+00:00

ING strategist Ewa Manthey pointed out that the Middle East conflict could pose upside risks to aluminum prices and spot premiums. Shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz will impact the supply of alumina and aluminum, thereby tightening global markets. Rising energy prices also heighten this risk.

K-LinePoet

2026-03-22 22:15:33

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ING Strategist Ewa Manthey stated in a report that the Middle East conflict poses upside risks to aluminum prices and spot premiums. She pointed out that the Gulf Cooperation Council accounts for about 8.0% of global aluminum production but only produces around 3.0% of global alumina and about 1.0% of bauxite, making the region highly dependent on imports for raw materials. If shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted long-term, it could block alumina inflows and limit aluminum exports, significantly tightening global supply. The duration of the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is likely to determine the extent of upside in aluminum prices and premiums. Additionally, rising energy prices also add further upside risk through increased costs.

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