【ZCB FICC·Precious Metals】US Dollar Index and Treasury Yields Continue to Rise, Precious Metal Market Under Pressure Amid Tight Liquidity

(Source: Zhejiang Commercial Bank FICC)

Market Review

March 9, 2025 – March 13, 2025

Data Source: Tonghuashun

Last week, spot gold opened at $5,172.21 per ounce, reaching a high of $5,238.62 per ounce. On Friday, spot gold closed at ¥5,018.10 per ounce, down 2.97% for the week. Last week, spot silver opened at $84.476 per ounce, with a high of $90.021 per ounce, and closed at $80.539 per ounce on Friday, down 4.66% for the week. Last week, due to ongoing tensions in Iran, oil prices fluctuated higher, with sustained high oil prices significantly boosting inflation expectations, driving global interest rates sharply higher. Meanwhile, liquidity tightening suppressed risk assets, putting considerable pressure on precious metals markets. The US February CPI data released on Wednesday generally met expectations, but the high oil prices since March are expected to be reflected gradually in upcoming data. The US January JOLTS data released on Friday exceeded expectations, indicating a relatively stable labor market. The Fed’s rate cut expectations declined further, further suppressing precious metal prices. International gold prices closed around $5,000 per ounce for the week, and international silver prices around $80.5 per ounce.

This week, focus on developments in Iran, US February PPI data, Federal Reserve interest rate meetings, international oil price trends, and US liquidity tightening. Expect increased volatility in gold prices; it is recommended to trade with small positions and remain flexible.

Overseas ETF Holdings

SPDR Gold ETF Holdings

As of March 13, 2026, the largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, held 1,071.56 tons of gold, with a net reduction of 1.76 tons last week.

Data Source: Tonghuashun

iShares Silver ETF (SLV) Holdings

As of March 13, 2026, iShares Silver ETF held 15,460.18 tons of silver, with a net reduction of 301.44 tons last week.

Data Source: Tonghuashun

CFTC Gold Positions

Data Source: Tonghuashun

CFTC Silver Positions

Data Source: Tonghuashun

Last week, gold and silver ETFs saw net reductions, while CFTC positions for gold and silver increased, indicating a weakening in demand for allocation to gold and silver. Investors are advised to trade with small positions and stay flexible.

Futures and Spot Price Spread

Last week, the gold futures-spot basis remained range-bound, touching a low of ¥5.00 per gram and closing at ¥5.49 per gram. As interbank funding rates declined, it is recommended to position for narrow spreads on rallies.

Shanghai Gold Main Contract and Spot Spread

(As of March 13, 2026)

Last week, silver futures-spot basis fluctuated downward, reaching a high of ¥377 per kilogram and closing at ¥167 per kilogram. With low inventories and futures discounts, cautious participation is advised.

Shanghai Silver Main Contract and Spot Spread

(As of March 13, 2026)

Domestic and International Price Differentials

Last week, the gold price differential between domestic and international markets fluctuated upward, touching a low of ¥1.52 per gram and a high of ¥4.03 per gram, closing at ¥4.03 per gram. Investors are advised to participate cautiously, focusing on narrow spreads on rallies.

Gold Domestic-International Price Differential

(As of March 13, 2026)

Last week, the silver price differential between domestic and international markets ranged sideways, with a low of ¥2,503 per kilogram and a high of ¥2,627 per kilogram, closing at ¥2,593 per kilogram. Caution is advised, with focus on narrow spread trading opportunities.

Silver Domestic-International Price Differential

(As of March 13, 2026)

Deferred Delivery Situation

Last week, gold futures showed a bearish bias, while mini gold futures and silver futures were bullish. With low interest rates and inventories, investors should monitor shifts in bullish and bearish forces and consider positioning accordingly.

Disclaimer: This report does not constitute investment advice. Investors should independently and prudently assess their risk tolerance and financial situation to make appropriate investment decisions.