BoFund Market Commentary March 18: Market Contracts as Indexes Rise, ChiNext Gains Over 2%

🌟【Market Commentary March 18】Market shrinks in volume but rises, ChiNext up over 2%

📝Daily Viewpoint

🎈Today, the Shanghai and Shenzhen major indices rebounded, with the ChiNext Index rising over 2%. Market turnover continued to shrink compared to yesterday, totaling 2.06 trillion yuan. Internationally, amid Middle East conflicts and the “Super Central Bank Week,” overnight, the Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest rate decision. Market consensus expects rates to remain unchanged, with key focus on the updated economic projections (SEP) and the dot plot. With the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz raising inflation expectations, expectations for rate cuts this year may diminish, and the US dollar and bond yields could strengthen, increasing volatility in global risk assets. Domestically, the economy started well in January-February, with industrial added value at 6.3%, positive fixed asset investment, strong exports, and moderate retail sales, easing previous concerns about economic recovery momentum. Details show that equipment manufacturing contributes nearly 50% to industrial growth, and the outlook for new productive forces is positive, indicating that the domestic economic structure is undergoing substantial optimization. In the short term, the domestic equity market may experience volatility under external disturbances; a defensive strategy could be adopted while waiting for the impact of US-Iran conflicts on oil prices to clarify. Subsequently, attention should turn to PPI recovery and corporate earnings changes.

🔥News Highlights

🎈On March 17, the Ministry of Finance released the “2025 China Fiscal Policy Implementation Report.” The report reviews fiscal operations in 2025: national general public budget expenditure was 29.4 trillion yuan, up 3.6%; science and technology expenditure was 1.2062 trillion yuan, up 4.8%. For 2026, the Ministry of Finance has clarified that it will continue to implement more proactive fiscal policies with increased precision and effectiveness.

Brief comment: The report systematically proposes a package of policies called “Fiscal and Financial Coordination to Stimulate Domestic Demand,” linking ultra-long special bonds, special bonds, and financial instruments, aiming to leverage private investment and household consumption with minimal effort. The data showing a 4.8% increase in tech spending and a 9.6% rise in basic research expenditure confirms the clear direction of fiscal funds toward “new productive forces.” Fields like technological innovation, high-end manufacturing, and new consumption are expected to continue receiving fiscal support.

🎈On March 17, the National Development and Reform Commission announced a new batch of 13 landmark major foreign investment projects with a planned investment of $13.4 billion. The new projects mainly focus on manufacturing, including electronics, chemicals, automobiles, and electrical machinery, promoting the rapid development of industrial clusters. So far, these landmark foreign investment projects have accumulated a total investment of $108 billion, demonstrating a significant demonstration effect.

Brief comment: This project list is the first to include logistics projects, continuing support for R&D centers in biomedicine and other fields, signaling China’s increased support for the service industry and the deep integration of modern services and advanced manufacturing. Investment sources are more diverse, including multinational companies from the UK, Germany, Switzerland, Sweden, and Turkey. The projects focus on advanced manufacturing sectors like electronics, chemicals, and automobiles, aligning closely with domestic industrial upgrading and helping to create a collaborative innovation ecosystem for domestic and foreign enterprises.

🎈From March 17 to 18, the National Development and Reform Commission and relevant departments organized the application for nationally significant major application scenario projects. The projects will be announced in a list format, with qualified projects prioritized for support within existing funding channels. It is reported that around 100 leading scenario projects will be identified nationwide, involving the creation of multi-province clean energy corridors, full-space unmanned systems, and elderly care scenarios in regions with high aging levels.

Brief comment: The launch of 100 landmark application scenario projects marks a profound shift in macro policy from “funding and incentives” to “market and opportunity.” For emerging industries like low-altitude economy, clean energy, and elderly care, application scenarios that lack proven technology are often more challenging than funding shortages. Government-led opening of public resources and coordination to resolve institutional barriers (such as low-altitude airspace opening and flight approval simplification) will help provide valuable platforms for technological validation. Priority funding support for these projects is expected to boost investment confidence in related fields.

👉Market Review

🎈On March 18, the three major A-share indices rose. By the close, the Shanghai Composite was at 4,062.98 points, up 0.32%; the Shenzhen Component was at 14,187.80 points, up 1.05%; the ChiNext Index was at 3,346.37 points, up 2.02%; the STAR 100 was at 1,558.69 points, up 2.31%. Among the primary industries, communications, computers, and electronics led gains with increases of 5.23%, 2.46%, and 2.41%, respectively. Oil & petrochemicals, real estate, and food & beverages declined, with drops of 1.47%, 1.05%, and 0.91%. A total of 3,473 stocks rose, while 1,682 declined.

💰Fund Flow Tracking

🎈Market turnover was 20.612 trillion yuan, down from the previous trading day. The margin trading balance closed at 2.652 trillion yuan, down from the previous day.

Data source: Tonghuashun, as of March 18, 2026. Funds carry risks; investment should be cautious. Fund managers commit to managing and using fund assets with honesty, integrity, and diligence but do not guarantee profits or returns. Past performance does not predict future results.

MACD bullish crossover signals formed, these stocks are on a good upward trend!