March 23 Members' Morning Brief: Trump Issues Final Ultimatum to Iran; Iran Proposes "Impossible" Six Conditions for Ceasefire

1. 【Trump Issues Final Ultimatum to Iran】U.S. President Donald Trump issued a 48-hour deadline to Iran on Saturday, March 21, 2026, demanding the unconditional opening of the Strait of Hormuz and threatening to destroy Iranian power facilities, including the Bushehr nuclear power plant, if demands are not met. In response, Iran warned of a strong retaliatory strike and designated U.S. and allied energy and water treatment facilities in the region as targets.

2. 【Iran Proposes Six ‘Impossible’ Conditions for Ceasefire】According to Mehr News Agency and other Iranian media on the 22nd, an anonymous Iranian official told Lebanon’s “Square” TV that Iran has put forward six conditions for a ceasefire. The six conditions are: 1. Guarantee that the war will not happen again; 2. Close U.S. military bases in the Middle East; 3. Iran to be compensated by the aggressor; 4. End all fighting on regional fronts; 5. Establish new legal frameworks for the Strait of Hormuz; 6. Trial and transfer media personnel involved in anti-Iran activities.

3. 【Federal Reserve Rate Hike Probability Rises to 50% in October】Market expectations for the Fed to cut rates in 2026 have been completely erased, with the probability of a rate hike in October rising to 50%.

Commentary: Originally, the market widely expected inflation to be under control by 2026 and for a steady rate cut cycle to begin, but the sudden energy crisis shattered this logic. Rising oil prices will quickly transmit to transportation, industrial manufacturing, and overall societal operating costs. The surge in rate hike probability indicates that U.S. Treasury yields (risk-free rates) will rise sharply again. For tech and growth stocks, represented by Nasdaq, high interest rates will not only significantly increase corporate financing costs but also severely raise the discount rate for future cash flows, putting their high valuation multiples under intense “valuation killing” pressure.

Image: U.S. Treasury yields rise sharply

4. 【Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang ‘Acknowledges’ Space Computing Potential】Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang publicly recognized the long-term potential of orbital computing, stating that processing data directly in space (rather than transmitting it back to Earth) is the logical next step. He also hinted that establishing AI data centers in space may be more challenging than imagined, with cooling being one of the biggest difficulties.

5. 【Global Largest Recruitment Agency Releases AI-Benefited Industries】The world’s largest recruitment firm, Randstad, released a report stating that AI’s impact on the labor market is twofold: on one hand, it replaces software and white-collar jobs; on the other, it drives growth in other employment sectors. From 2022 to 2026, demand for robot technicians increased by 107%, HVAC system engineers by 67%, industrial automation technicians by 51%, and traditional trades like electricians by 27%. The expansion of data centers has led to a skills shortage, with energy, defense, and AI sectors competing for the same pool of skilled workers.