CITIC Securities: The Medium to Long-Term Logic of Gold Remains Intact

K-LinePoet · 2026-03-23T00:29:12+00:00

CITIC Securities research report indicates that the gold trading market shows a clear bullish trend, with continued upward expectations in the short term, but gold prices are expected to face pressure after Federal Reserve monetary convergence. In the medium to long term, weakening US dollar status and RMB internationalization will drive gold prices higher. Oil prices have rebounded ahead of schedule due to the US-Iran conflict.

K-LinePoet

2026-03-23 00:29:12

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CITIC Securities Research Report states that since August 2025, gold long trading has become crowded, and the market is almost unanimously bullish on gold. Previously, CITIC Securities provided a gold price outlook: short-term bullish, with gold expected to reach a sentiment peak in the first quarter of 2026. In the medium to short term, bearish, based on the logic that the rise of black commodities will inevitably follow the Fed’s monetary tightening, damaging liquidity pricing of gold. In the medium to long term, bullish, due to the weakening of the US dollar’s position, especially the decline in the technology pillar supporting the dollar. In the very long term, bullish, because the smoke of great power rivalry is gradually dissipating, and the internationalization of the RMB is significantly rising, representing a systemic revaluation of gold. Looking back at the gold price trend, the rise in crude oil was driven by the US-Iran war arriving early, rather than the impossible triangle within the US model, ultimately pushed back by fiscal policy to restore oil prices.

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