Galaxy Securities: Hong Kong Stock Investment Strategy Should Focus on Three Main Lines Under Geopolitical Conflicts and High Oil Prices

People’s Financial News, March 23 — A research report from China Galaxy Securities states that looking ahead, if the US and Iran become embroiled in a long-term quagmire, the Hong Kong stock market will go through three stages of evolution: “short-term emotional shock → medium-term fundamental transmission → long-term structural divergence.” Macroeconomically, it faces a severe combination of “low growth, high interest rates, and sticky inflation,” but the valuation advantage, high dividend characteristics, and support from southbound funds give Hong Kong stocks relative resilience among non-US assets.

In terms of investment strategy, three main themes should be focused on: (1) Cyclical sectors. The global manufacturing recovery combined with AI capital expenditure expansion is causing a systemic reshaping of supply and demand in cyclical sectors. Regarding strategic resources, attention is recommended for traditional energy sources such as crude oil, natural gas, and coal, as well as precious metals like gold, and key metals related to military and hard technology. Additionally, chemicals with cost transmission capabilities and agriculture sectors with improving prospects are worth close watch. (2) Financial sectors and consumer discretionary sectors at valuation lows. (3) Technology sectors (hard tech with independent controllability logic). Currently, global funds show a significant preference for upstream hardware technology, and the trend of “de-softening” to “hardening” in HALO trading is expected to continue into the first half of the year.