Breaking down to build up, destruction before construction—from real estate assets to equity assets, this is merely the beginning!

Everyone knows it’s a slow bull market, so all the chips are held tightly without moving, resulting in the main players not having enough low-position chips, and of course, they won’t push the market up. [Taogu Ba]

The main players have been consolidating and oscillating here for over two months, thinking they can absorb enough chips, but little do they know that now the brothers and sisters are very stubborn—they won’t sell because everyone knows 4000 points is a solid bottom. Actually, that’s not the case. Do people know? Do quant firms know?

Stock trading itself is a game against human nature, so the main players simply break through 4000 points, breaking through what everyone believes is a firm bottom. One attempt on Thursday wasn’t enough because it was pulled back, and the chips weren’t washed out. The volume of hundreds of billions on Thursday shows this isn’t what the main players want. So on Friday, they had to keep smashing it repeatedly, but still couldn’t wash out many bloodied chips. In the afternoon, they deliberately created a situation where breaking through 4000 points was unstoppable, with a volume of 160 billion. That still wasn’t enough, so over the weekend, they created a sense of panic and anxiety, likely leading to a low open or a tug-of-war for a couple of days on Monday.

When will the market stop falling and rebound? I believe it will rebound this week, but the specific day depends on market conditions and volume analysis.

Actually, in 2024, whether it’s October or April 2025, my old followers know that market sentiment was extremely panic-driven, yet I was still bullish at that time. No need to say more—it’s a simple question: why am I bullish?

Because this is a slow bull market. GJD is diligently trying to replicate the tech bull market that the US stock market experienced twenty years ago. Spending so much effort just to reach 4000 points and then start a bear market? History shows that even a crazy bull market doesn’t end that quickly. So whether it’s a bull market or not, there’s no need to overthink—it definitely is.

Secondly, some say this time is different—this time, the Middle East conflict has affected oil and energy, potentially leading the world into an inflation era, possibly even triggering a global financial crisis. That’s possible, but what impact does it really have? The energy sector already supplies some internally, and the main oil and energy importers are Russia and the Middle East. Also, Iran has said that countries not involved in the attack can negotiate the Strait of Hormuz.

Moreover, I believe this situation proves the *'s capability. In a world of turmoil, our * people are the safest anywhere, demonstrating to the world that our * country is the safest in the world—no doubt. Sending Middle East envoys to mediate not only shows the responsibility of a major world power but also a love for peace.

A large portion of foreign capital prefers the most stable countries, and some oil-rich Middle Eastern nations’ institutions have begun flowing into China’s stock market. Additionally, China’s tech sector is now comparable to the US in many aspects, including domestic chip replacements, which are making great strides.

The 15th Five-Year Plan includes a foreign investment reform—shifting from reliance on “land finance” to “asset finance,” providing funding support for steady growth and risk prevention during the period. Simply put, it’s transforming land assets into equity assets. You can ask Qianwen or Yuanbao—many companies’ actual controllers have recently become local finance bureaus or state-owned assets commissions. From selling land to selling equity, who are they selling to? Everyone knows—domestically and internationally.

So do you think this bull market will end here? The answer is obvious: impossible! The tech bull is the fastest track for overtaking on curves!

In the short term: the market will not fall without a foundation, and after breaking, it will establish.
In the long term: the foreign investment reform—shifting from land assets to equity assets—is just the beginning, not the end!

Sector directions:

Storage chips: will follow the trend of Yizhong Tian last year. Not a rapid rise, but oscillating upward. Before the first quarter report, there will be a quick surge, then enter a slow oscillation phase. Specifics depend on actual conditions; this is just my preliminary judgment.

Photovoltaics and space photovoltaics: gained momentum over the weekend. Previously, photovoltaic stocks were driven mainly by news, but now it’s about actual performance. Based on Musk and Huang Renxun’s speeches, it’s now about real results. Globally, whether in power equipment or PV devices, China’s capacity and technology are absolutely number one.

Electric power: the Middle East conflict has triggered a crisis in non-renewable energy, highlighting the importance of green electricity. Since Europe eliminated tariffs on wind power, the world will no longer heavily depend on non-renewable energy. Our top leaders are farsighted—encouraging new energy vehicles and developing wind, solar, nuclear, hydro, and green energy to prevent reliance on other countries. The US has spent huge costs controlling Middle Eastern energy, which is equivalent to controlling the global economy.

Oil and natural gas are non-renewable. Once reserves are depleted, they cannot be replenished in the short term, contrasting sharply with renewable energies like solar, wind, and water that can be sustained indefinitely.

From a technological perspective, the rise in token usage reveals a huge electricity consumption black hole. The current trend: computing power equals electricity, tokens equal energy. During the 15th Five-Year Plan’s reform, activating energy resources will make power a core strategic asset supporting AI development.

JPMorgan and other institutions predict that from 2025 to 2030, China’s AI inference token consumption will increase by about 370 times (from 10 billion to 3,900 billion).

Long-term: electricity will become the only hard constraint for AI development. Future competition won’t be about whose model is smarter, but who can access cheaper, more stable electricity. “Token going overseas” is essentially China’s cheap electricity being exported digitally.

Commercial space and humanoid robots: wait until the first quarter reports come out to see the specifics.