"Grasping the Future 'Discourse,' Musk Begins Reorganizing China's Photovoltaic Industry!"

Elon Musk’s Solar Plan Officially Launches

Recently, media reports confirmed that Tesla plans to purchase production equipment worth approximately $2.9 billion from several Chinese photovoltaic equipment companies, which has been verified by Chinese firms.

According to Musk’s previous vision, Tesla and SpaceX plan to build 100 GW of solar capacity annually in the U.S. over the next three years, totaling 200 GW.

It’s quite alarming when you think about it.

Once this plan is realized, Tesla and SpaceX are expected to surpass many Chinese solar giants to become the world’s largest solar cell/module group. Musk could also become the future leader of the global solar industry, which will undoubtedly have a profound impact on China’s photovoltaic industry landscape.

This is not just a speculation; it is beginning to take shape.

01 Attractive US AI Power Demand

The power demand for AI data centers is undeniable.

As the main battleground for AI, the United States has an enormous energy requirement.

However, due to the underdeveloped power grid and high electricity prices, AI data centers in the U.S. cannot rely long-term on public grids or natural gas generation. Power has become a major obstacle to the development of AI in the U.S.

This is hard to imagine in the Chinese market.

The issue of AI power in the U.S. is more sensitive and urgent.

Recently, Amazon, Google, OpenAI, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle, and xAI have committed to building dedicated power supplies for new AI data centers, internalizing the rising energy costs to avoid impacting the grid and consumers.

Incremental AI power demand, like GPUs, has become a deterministic need. Whoever can solve the U.S. AI power problem will hold the oil of the AI era.

For AI power needs, natural gas generation is too costly, and short-term nuclear power restart is limited. Photovoltaics are expected to become a key support for the U.S. AI industry.

If solar can secure a significant or even dominant share in AI power demand, it can share this huge incremental cake and potentially usher in the second half of the photovoltaic industry.

Elon Musk will naturally not miss this historic opportunity.

02 Breaking Through Solar Trade Barriers

However, entering the U.S. solar market is not easy.

The core issue with U.S. power difficulties is trade barriers, which are even more prominent in the AI era.

Musk also admits that one major reason for SpaceX’s involvement in space-based photovoltaics is the high U.S. tariffs, which prevent large-scale, low-cost deployment of ground-based solar and energy storage like in China, to meet the explosive growth of AI energy demand.

At the Davos Forum this year, Musk expressed envy for China’s solar advantages, clearly showing his admiration.

By 2025, the U.S. will add 43.2 GW of new solar capacity, reaching a total of about 279 GW. In contrast, China’s cumulative installed capacity exceeds 1,200 GW, with grid absorption becoming a “headache” and overcapacity a “problem.”

If China’s cheap solar systems could cover the U.S. landmass, Chinese companies could likely drive U.S. power costs down to Chinese levels.

For Musk, who has long proposed the “solar-storage-electric vehicle” business model, he offers an “extraordinary” solution with little need for further understanding.

The first plan is to establish solar manufacturing capacity in the U.S. based on the ground, breaking trade barriers, to meet domestic solar power needs. Tesla, with its mature “solar-storage-electric vehicle” model, would mainly handle this.

The second plan is to create space-based solar, generating power in space to establish AI computing centers or transmit space solar power back to Earth, mainly handled by SpaceX, which is actively promoting commercial space.

On January 31, 2026, SpaceX disclosed a massive orbital data center plan, proposing to deploy up to 1 million satellites in low Earth orbit, mainly powered by photovoltaics.

From ground to space, this results in Tesla and SpaceX each having a 100 GW solar capacity plan.

Musk’s grand solar plan is essentially about breaking trade barriers.

03 Securing Future “Discourse Power”

Large, fragile, sensitive, urgent…

Whoever controls the U.S. AI power market will have greater “discourse power.”

Without the huge AI power demand or trade conflicts, these issues wouldn’t exist.

When AI power demand collides with trade conflicts, the current “strange situation” emerges, creating another huge business opportunity for Musk, including the “space-based solar” super concept.

Solving AI power issues with photovoltaics cannot be separated from China.

Currently, U.S. trade barriers mainly target solar modules, batteries, silicon wafers, and silicon materials, but do not involve solar equipment, aligning with the U.S. strategy to “revitalize manufacturing.”

Tesla or SpaceX can bypass trade barriers by purchasing Chinese solar equipment and importing Chinese solar technology, building their own solar capacity—seems the most feasible approach now.

Today, Tesla, as a leader in domestic automation manufacturing in the U.S., is starting 100 GW of solar capacity, not only buying equipment but also importing technology and management. Rumors suggest Tesla is in talks with a top Chinese TOPCon module company for technical cooperation.

By breaking trade barriers, Musk leverages Tesla and SpaceX’s mature local manufacturing advantages, cleverly combining China’s leading solar production capacity with the urgent U.S. AI power demand, thus gaining “discourse power” in the future solar AI power field and even redefining the application logic of photovoltaics in AI power.

It’s a near-perfect strategy.

04 Changing the Global Division of Labor for Chinese PV Companies

The global division of labor among Chinese companies is subtly shifting.

Under the “Musk” model, China, as a global leader in photovoltaics, is no longer just selling terminal products but exporting production capacity—both equipment and technology, even management.

Therefore, the main players will shift from battery or module companies to equipment or technology firms. In other words, equipment and tech companies benefit, while module and cell companies may face challenges.

This scenario is not unfamiliar.

Last November, Canadian Solar restructured its U.S. battery cell and module business, with Chinese entities holding 24.9% equity and overseas entities holding 75.1%.

This is another example of embracing the U.S. market, albeit through different paths.

If photovoltaic modules and core components are restricted by trade barriers, requiring capacity to be established in the U.S. with over 75% equity, Chinese companies can export equipment, technology, and management, holding at most 25% equity under this rule.

But this also means that Chinese PV companies’ roles in global division of labor are subtly changing, especially relinquishing dominance in batteries and modules.

Insight reveals the trend.

In the AI era, whoever controls larger AI data center power resources will dominate the “discourse power” in the PV industry, including capacity and even technological routes in the AI age.

For example, if Musk’s team advocates for TOPCon, HJT, and perovskite, what about the BC technology we’ve long believed in?

This is quite alarming upon reflection.

Of course, another path is to vigorously develop China’s AI computing industry, converting cheap electricity into affordable computing power and exporting it via tokens. Only by winning in AI computing power can China potentially gain “discourse power” in AI power, but this depends mainly on the AI computing industry, not solely on photovoltaics—that’s another topic.

In any case, this will profoundly impact China’s photovoltaic industry landscape. AI is coming. In the face of new trends, we need to think about how to adapt and respond.

The photovoltaic industry has reached a crossroads again.

Source: Mr. Jiang Jing’s Capital Circle

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