Can Trump Reopen the "Strait of Hormuz" by "Seizing Halk Island"?

The United States is significantly increasing its troop presence in the Middle East, sharply raising market concerns that the U.S. military may seize Iran’s oil export hub, Hormuz Island. According to Xinhua News Agency, the Trump administration was reported on the 20th to have deployed additional ground forces to the Middle East.

Bloomberg energy and commodities columnist Javier Blas analyzed that Trump is considering taking control of Hormuz Island, attempting to use it as leverage to force Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. However, this action not only faces huge military risks but is also unlikely to achieve the desired effect in the short term. If Hormuz Island and surrounding oil facilities are damaged, or if Iran retaliates, international oil prices could spiral out of control, causing a heavy blow to the global economy.

Hormuz Island is located in the northwest Persian Gulf, about 6 kilometers long and 3 kilometers wide, and 90% of Iran’s crude oil exports pass through here. For decades, the U.S. has coveted Hormuz Island. According to U.S. media reports, during the 1979 Iran hostage crisis, then-President Carter considered bombing or seizing the island. In 1988, Trump, then a businessman promoting his book The Art of the Deal, also proposed taking control of the island.

Hormuz Island is not Iran’s only oil export “valve”

Typically, Hormuz exports about 1.7 million barrels per day. Regarding whether “seizing the island can quickly pressure Iran and reopen the Strait of Hormuz,” Javier Blas’s core view is: capturing Hormuz Island cannot shut down Iran’s entire export system.

Blas analyzes that Iran has other oil terminals, such as the Jask terminal in the Arabian Sea, and Lavan, Sirri, and Qeshm islands in the Persian Gulf. These terminals can provide alternative export channels in emergencies, with combined daily exports of 500,000 to 600,000 barrels.

Blas writes that Jask, located in the Arabian Sea outside the disputed strait, “may export about 300,000 barrels per day,” while the other terminals combined “may export 200,000–300,000 barrels per day.”

Additionally, Iran also exports liquefied natural gas (LNG) and refined products (fuel oil, LPG, naphtha, etc.), with a daily export volume of about 1 million barrels, mainly through ports like Assaluyeh, Bandar Mahshahr, and Abadan.

Javier Blas points out that to truly cut off Iran’s oil revenue lifeline, Trump would need to seize not only Hormuz Island but also other terminals simultaneously.

White House needs “days to weeks,” not months, for “maximum pressure”

Blas writes that even if Iran’s exports are pushed to very low levels again, it may not “show results” within the speed required by the White House.

He compares to the 2020-2021 maximum pressure campaign, during which Iran’s crude oil exports remained below “250,000 barrels per day” for several months, and from early 2020 to mid-2022, Iran’s overseas crude shipments did not exceed “750,000 barrels per day” for more than 24 months; but he notes that “Tehran did not yield.”

Regarding “why time matters,” Blas states that unlike Iran, the White House “lacks time advantage,” needing to see the Strait of Hormuz reopen within “days or at most weeks”; if it drags on for months, “the global economy will collapse due to high oil prices.”

He also notes that by the fourth week of the conflict, Iran had exported “at least 1.5 million barrels per day” of oil and other products; at an average price of $80 per barrel, that’s about $2.5 billion. He suggests this is “a revenue buffer that Tehran likely did not expect at the start of the bombing.”

High risks and unpredictable consequences of military action

From a military perspective, seizing Hormuz Island is a highly risky operation. According to Xinhua News Agency, military experts say that the U.S. has three options for island seizure: amphibious assault, helicopter landings, and airborne paratroopers, possibly combined, but all carry significant risks. Hormuz Island is only about 25 kilometers from Iran’s mainland, and U.S. forces attacking will be under constant fire from Iranian coastal defenses.

Former Army officer Harrison Mann analyzed that if an amphibious assault is launched, the U.S. amphibious fleet crossing the Strait of Hormuz would become a prime target for Iranian fire. Helicopter landings and paratrooper drops also face serious threats from Iran’s air defense systems and ground fire.

Even if U.S. forces succeed in capturing the island, the subsequent situation could become even more perilous. Reports indicate that U.S. soldiers could become “living targets” on the island, and occupying it may not prevent Iran from continuing to attack U.S. ships using coastal facilities. Mann warns that this operation, even if not a “suicide mission,” could easily turn into a “hostage crisis.”

Energy markets face huge uncertainty

The biggest concern for markets is that escalation of conflict could disrupt global energy supplies. If Iran’s oil facilities are destroyed during military operations, the global oil supply would be severely impacted.

More seriously, Iran might retaliate. Dennis Citrinowicz of the Tel Aviv National Security Research Institute states that Iran’s policy is: “Whatever you do to us, we will do the same — or even more.” If Iran’s energy infrastructure is attacked, it will retaliate by striking neighboring countries’ energy facilities.

This chain reaction could trigger violent shocks in energy markets. Javier Blas emphasizes that the White House lacks time advantage and needs to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within days or weeks. If the conflict drags on, the global economy risks collapsing due to soaring oil prices.

Blas concludes:

Hormuz Island has fascinated Trump for 40 years. Unfortunately, he seems not to truly understand its significance to Iran or the potential dilemma Iran faces after losing it. Perhaps for this reason, he threatened to restrict Hormuz on Friday, only to issue a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran on Saturday: reopen the strait or face attacks on its power grid. As American presidents often do, neglecting history may lead to regrettable decisions.

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