"Ultra-strong El Niño will make this year and next the hottest years"? Expert response →

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“Next year or the year after could be the hottest on record”

“Earth may experience a super El Niño phenomenon”

These topics have surged to the top of online trending searches, sparking widespread public attention.

Several media outlets report that multiple research institutions worldwide predict that a strong El Niño may occur later this year, disrupting global climate patterns. This could not only trigger extreme heat, floods, droughts, and other disasters but also further raise global temperatures, leading to record-high temperatures this summer and next.

On March 15, Chen Lijuan, chief expert at the National Climate Center’s Climate Prediction Office, and Liu Yunyun, director of the same office, responded to these claims. They believe it is too early to conclude that a “super El Niño” will occur this year.

What is the El Niño phenomenon?

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a coupled ocean-atmosphere oscillation occurring in the tropical Pacific with a cycle of 3–7 years. It is a natural variability of the climate system.

ENSO phases are generally indicated by the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in a fixed region of the tropical central-eastern Pacific—specifically, the deviation from the climate average. If the 3-month running mean SST remains above 0.5°C for five months, it is considered a warm phase, called El Niño; if it remains below -0.5°C for five months, it is a cold phase, called La Niña; if the SST fluctuates between -0.5°C and 0.5°C, it is considered a neutral state.

Based on the latest monitoring data and predictions from multiple climate models domestically and internationally, the National Climate Center analyzes that the La Niña state is nearing its end and will likely transition into a neutral phase. The SST in the tropical central-eastern Pacific is expected to continue rising, and by late spring, an El Niño could develop.

Historically, about one-third of La Niña events end with an El Niño in the same year. Different climate models worldwide have varying predictions for the timing of El Niño development—some as early as April, others as late as late summer or early fall. The predicted timing varies significantly across models.

Overall, there is a higher likelihood of an El Niño developing in the equatorial central-eastern Pacific in the second half of this year. However, it is still too early to accurately predict the exact timing and overall strength of such an event. Currently, predictions from multiple international climate models show considerable divergence, and no consensus has been reached. Therefore, it is premature to definitively state that a “super El Niño” will occur this year.

Weather and climate change are closely related to people’s lives and economic development. Discussions on social media about “hottest years” and “extreme weather” are lively, but some information may be exaggerated or taken out of context.

Chen Lijuan advises the public to view prediction information rationally. Climate forecasts carry inherent uncertainties, especially regarding the specific timing, intensity, and regional impacts of El Niño, which require ongoing monitoring and prediction. The public should pay attention to real-time updates from authoritative agencies rather than extreme statements based on single data points.