Rare! Stock market "whistleblower" unexpectedly speaks out! A chain reaction suddenly erupts within the United States! Iran sends a letter to the United Nations

The Middle East conflict is making the markets weary!

The situation in Iran continues to develop in unexpected directions. According to the latest news on the afternoon of the 19th, Nour News, Iran’s official news agency, reported that Iran’s UN ambassador stated in a letter to the UN Secretary-General that the UAE is responsible for compensation due to “allowing the US to launch airstrikes against Iran from its territory.” According to Xinhua News Agency, on the 18th, IDF spokesperson Efi Duvlin said that the Israeli military will not stop its “series of eliminations” targeting senior Iranian officials. Israeli Defense Minister Katz also announced that he and Netanyahu have jointly decided to authorize the IDF to strike “any senior Iranian official” without prior approval, stating “all Iranians are targets.”

Meanwhile, the latest Yahoo/YouGov poll shows that the Iran conflict has caused a sharp rise in US oil prices, triggering chain political reactions within the US. About two-thirds (66%) of American respondents oppose the way the US is handling oil prices.

Today, Asia-Pacific markets declined across the board, with international oil prices continuing to surge. Citibank predicts Brent crude oil could rise to $110–$120 per barrel in the coming days. A report from Morgan Stanley, known as a market “whistleblower,” recommends investors sell stocks amid this week’s market rally and warns that rising energy prices could lead to deeper market declines.

Iran Situation and Chain Reactions

According to CCTV News, Iran has reported that recent attacks by the US and Israel on Iranian medical facilities have resulted in at least 18 healthcare workers killed. On February 28, the US and Israel launched large-scale military operations against Iran, killing then-Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei and several senior military and political officials in airstrikes. Iran has retaliated against targets including Israel and US military bases in the Middle East.

Notably, on March 19, the Deputy Governor of Lorestan Province in western Iran stated that the US and Israel launched an attack on a residential area there on the 18th, resulting in 12 deaths and 116 injuries.

Additionally, on the 19th, the Israeli Defense Forces released a report stating that Iran launched its fifth ballistic missile attack on Israel since midnight. No casualties or impact reports have been received. The IDF said the missile carried cluster bombs and hit an open area.

According to Nour News, Iran’s UN ambassador stated in a letter to the UN Secretary-General that the UAE is responsible for compensation due to “allowing the US to launch airstrikes against Iran from its territory.”

The Iran conflict has caused a significant rise in US oil prices, triggering chain political reactions domestically. A poll conducted by Yahoo/YouGov from March 12 to 16 shows that about two-thirds (66%) of US respondents disapprove of the US government’s handling of oil prices, with only 27% in favor. The proportion of respondents opposing the US government’s approach to living costs is as high as 67%, with only 26% in support. Overall, Americans’ approval of the US government’s economic management has decreased by 5 percentage points from last month (from 37% to 32%), while disapproval has risen by 4 points (from 57% to 61%).

The survey shows that 80% of respondents believe gasoline prices are too high, 67% expect oil prices to rise further in the coming months, and 45% think gasoline prices will increase significantly. Even Republican supporters believe that oil prices will rise in the next few months (about 45%) rather than fall (40%).

Morgan Stanley Suddenly Speaks Out

After a sharp rebound in the previous trading day, Asia-Pacific major stock indices declined collectively today: Nikkei 225 down 3.38%, KOSPI down 2.73%, S&P/ASX 200 and S&P/NZX 50 both fell nearly 2%.

Morgan Stanley issued a report advising investors to sell stocks during this week’s rally in Asian markets and warned that rising energy prices could lead to deeper declines. The report notes that Brent crude has approached the predicted $120–$130 per barrel in a worst-case scenario, making Asia more vulnerable to disruptions in oil and LNG supplies compared to other regions. In such a scenario, Asian markets could fall into a bear market, dropping 15–20% below current levels.

Morgan Stanley also states that Asia is susceptible to supply disruptions of raw materials needed for agriculture and industrial production. Additionally, signals suggest that in a potential stagflation environment, interest rates may remain unchanged, which is another negative factor weighing on Asian markets.

Citi’s latest report indicates that amid escalating Middle East conflicts and rising risks of energy supply disruptions, international oil prices could surge sharply in the short term, with Brent crude expected to reach $110–$120 per barrel in the coming days. The bank believes that prices will continue to rise until they reach levels that trigger political or strategic interventions.

This report, led by Citi’s Global Commodities Head Maximilian Layton, states that in an updated baseline scenario, there is about a 50% chance that supply disruptions caused by the conflict will last 4–6 weeks, affecting between 11 and 16 million barrels per day. Citi suggests that as the conflict persists over the next few days, Brent crude could rebound to the $110–$120 range, with prices continuing to rise until they reach levels that may prompt policy responses.

The report also mentions that when oil prices reach certain levels, various policy or market reactions could occur, including the US potentially ending military operations, the International Energy Agency (IEA) and OECD countries releasing strategic oil reserves more actively, or major nations worldwide being forced to take action to reopen key energy transportation routes like the Strait of Hormuz.

Citi warns that the risk of further escalation remains significant. In a roughly 30% optimistic scenario, if Iran’s attacks expand to more energy infrastructure or the Strait of Hormuz remains closed before June, Brent could rise to $150 per barrel, or even reach $200 in an extreme scenario.

Conversely, about a 20% pessimistic scenario suggests that if the US and Iran quickly reach an agreement and reopen the Strait, global energy supply pressures could ease significantly, and oil prices might fall back to $65–$70 per barrel by year-end.

Beyond crude oil, Citi is also optimistic about aluminum prices. The bank notes that global aluminum inventories are relatively low, and some smelters in the Middle East may reduce production due to tense situations, potentially decreasing global aluminum supply by about 6%, further pushing prices higher.

On March 19, CITIC Securities’ Zhu Yexin stated at the 2026 Spring Capital Market Forum that, based on the government work report, recent statements from the CSRC, and a series of measures, stabilizing the market and improving the long-term investment ecosystem are essential for high-quality development of the capital market. Zhu Yexin believes that this solid underlying logic is reshaping China’s assets’ global attractiveness. Driven by fundamental recovery and increased capital inflows, the A-share market is transitioning from stock-to-stock competition to a key period of incremental allocation, with a more resilient and stable new capital market ecosystem taking shape.

(Source: Securities Times)