BTC is now stuck around 68,000 swinging nearby, with minor 24-hour fluctuations of around 1% (depending on which second you catch it), and the weekly trend is still heading down. This market is really hard to describe - upside moves lack volume, downside probes don't collapse either, just grinding sideways in the 67k-70k range with direction nearly impossible to predict, enough to make you pull your hair out 😅

Recent developments:
1. On the Middle East geopolitical front, Trump issued ultimatums to Iran (48-hour deadline), oil prices spiked, inflation expectations picked up again, and the DXY is holding strong - macro risk-off sentiment is evident. Capital is seeking safety to some degree, but BTC actually shows resilience, not crashing along with stocks and gold, even producing occasional small rebounds.
2. ETF cumulative inflows have exceeded $56 billion, institutional foundation remains solid, though there have been minor outflows the past few days with volatile sentiment. Regulatory tailwinds (commodity status confirmed) are positive long-term, but the market is no longer excited.
3. Looking at on-chain and institutional data, the Fear and Greed Index is lingering in the low zone, and everyone is waiting for the next clear catalyst.
On the larger cycle, from the 2024 halving to 2026 now, many still believe this year should be a major bull year. But the policy tailwinds after Trump took office have largely fizzled out, and the crypto space has shifted directly from full FOMO into a cooling-off period: narratives becoming obsolete quickly, memes getting repeatedly pumped, newcomer trust at zero.
Crypto is increasingly resembling A-shares, with BTC acting as the "Moutai" that holds the line while altcoins suffer chronic losses - only structural opportunities remain.
Technically, 70k-72k remains strong resistance, with sideways consolidation likely continuing short-term.