CITIC Securities: The Medium to Long-Term Logic of Gold Remains Intact

MetaMuskRat · 2026-03-23T03:21:08+00:00

CITIC Securities points out that the gold market has shown widespread bullish sentiment since August 2025, with short-term sentiment potentially peaking in Q1 2026. Although medium-term downside is mainly driven by Federal Reserve monetary policy impact, long-term outlook remains bullish due to weakening US dollar status and accelerating internationalization of the yuan. Overall, gold prices are expected to resume an uptrend as liquidity shocks subside.

MetaMuskRat

2026-03-23 03:21:08

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People’s Financial News, March 23 — CITIC Securities Research reports that since August 2025, gold trading has become crowded with bullish positions, and the market is almost unanimously optimistic about gold. Previously, CITIC Securities provided a gold price outlook: short-term bullish, with gold expected to reach a sentiment peak in the first quarter of 2026; medium to short-term bearish, based on the logic that the rise of black assets will follow the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening, which damages liquidity pricing of gold; long-term bullish, due to the weakening of the US dollar’s status, especially the decline in the technology pillar supporting the dollar. In the very long term, the reasoning is that the smoke of great power rivalry is fading, and the internationalization of the RMB is significantly rising, representing a systemic revaluation of gold. Looking back at the gold price trend, the rise in oil was driven by the US-Iran conflict arriving early, rather than an impossible triangle within the US model, ultimately pushed by fiscal policy to restore oil prices. Besides that, the gold price movement has not deviated from our framework. How to view gold? Once liquidity shocks to gold diminish, gold can resume its medium- and long-term logic.

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