Winners in the New Energy Geopolitics: Neutral, Portable, Non-Political Assets

The tension in the Strait of Hormuz, the increase in non-dollar agreements in energy trade, and the bloc-like geopolitical structure reveal one truth: Capital is no longer pricing in "risk," but in "the backbone of the new system."

The formula for finding the winners in this environment is simple: Follow where the flow of money and energy is shifting.

1. Digital Gold: Bitcoin, Off-System Reserve
When geopolitical crisis, the questioning of the dollar, and capital controls come together, the market's first reflex is Bitcoin.
Why? Because it is non-state, censorship-resistant, and unrivaled in cross-border transfers. In parallel with central banks increasing their gold purchases in 2024-2025, BTC positions on corporate balance sheets have also been normalized as "digital reserves."
As the petrodollar narrative weakens, Bitcoin remains the strongest alternative narrative.

2. The Splitting of Liquidity: USDT and USDC
The crisis clearly divided the stablecoin market:
• USDT (Tether): Dominant in gray areas and non-bank corridors thanks to its regulatory flexibility. It plays a role as a "neutral exchange medium," especially in Gulf-Asia energy trade. Volume shifts to USDT during periods of uncertainty. • USDC: Fully compliant, integrated into the Western financial system. Strong in institutional use, but its room for maneuver narrows in geopolitical upheavals.

Conclusion: In a crisis, liquidity flows to where it is accessible.

3. Classic Trust and Hybrid Form: Gold
Gold remains the first safe haven in geopolitical risk. Central banks have been net buyers since 2023, and this trend continues into 2026.
What's new are gold-backed tokens (PAXG, XAUT): They combine the security of physical gold with the portability of cryptocurrency. “Holding gold in a crypto wallet” is no longer a niche, it’s a corporate strategy.

4. Direct Winner: Energy
The Strait of Hormuz is a bottleneck through which ~20% of the world’s oil supply passes. Here, risk = price.
• Brent/WTI: The possibility of supply disruptions pushes prices up; this is a mechanical relationship.
• Energy Majors: The group of stocks that react most quickly to oil prices. They have high operational leverage.

5. Long-Term Game: Yuan
The shift of some energy trade to the yuan is making it a regional reserve currency. However, this is a slow shift. The dollar’s share in energy trade is still above 55%. It’s more accurate to say “the monopoly is ending” rather than “the dollar is collapsing.”

6. Unseen Winners: The Price of Risk
The clearest winners of the crisis are tanker fleets and marine insurance companies. As risk increases, freight and insurance premiums rise, and revenues directly increase. We saw this in 2024; In 2026, infrastructure (LNG terminals, alternative pipelines) was also added to this list.

The Net Losers:
Dollar-dependent, fragile financial systems
European industry exposed to high energy costs

Energy-importing developing countries

Strategic Outcome:
As the world divides into blocs, the winners are assets that possess three characteristics: Neutral, portable, apolitical.

The current equivalent of this equation is:
Bitcoin (power outside the system) + Gold (classic security) + Oil (direct income) + USDT (grey area liquidity)

Portfolio construction is shaped around these four axes. The question should no longer be "is there risk?", but "where is my position in the new flow?"
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