After the deep correction that spanned late 2025 to early 2026, debate over whether Bitcoin has truly bottomed out has never ceased. On April 22, 2026, the Grayscale research team released its latest analysis, officially declaring that the Bitcoin bear market bottom has been established. This conclusion is based on the evolution of the on-chain core metric "realized price," and stands in sharp contrast to prevailing market expectations.
According to Gate market data, as of April 22, 2026, the Bitcoin price was $77,966.6, with a 24-hour trading volume of $513 million, a market capitalization of roughly $1.49 trillion, and a market dominance of 56.37%. Over the past 30 days, Bitcoin’s price has risen about 5.76%, but remains significantly below the historical peak of $126,080 reached in October 2025.
Grayscale’s announcement regarding the market bottom is not just a single institution’s viewpoint—it has triggered a multidimensional reassessment of cycle positioning, on-chain valuation models, and the broader macro environment.
Grayscale Research Team Officially Declares Bitcoin Has Bottomed
On April 22, 2026, Grayscale’s research team released a report clearly stating that Bitcoin has completed the construction of this cycle’s bear market bottom in the $65,000 to $70,000 range. Grayscale’s Head of Research, Zach Pandl, noted that since Bitcoin dropped to a low of around $63,000 on February 5, prices have rebounded more than 20%, and recent buyers have largely returned to breakeven.
The core basis for this judgment is the on-chain metric "realized price." Grayscale estimates that Bitcoin transferred on-chain in the past 1 to 3 months has a realized price of roughly $74,000—slightly below the current market price. This suggests that recent entrants have escaped unrealized losses.
Pandl further commented, "If Bitcoin prices continue to rise in the coming days, more recent buyers will move into profitable territory, which could serve as an effective indicator marking the first stage of a bull market."
Grayscale also emphasized that while Bitcoin’s price remains well below the October 2025 historical peak, the February rebound has established a sustainable price support, consistent with the typical characteristics of the end of panic-driven sell-offs.
Tracing the Path from Historical High to Confirmed Bottom
To understand the significance of Grayscale’s bottom call, it’s important to review the full timeline of this Bitcoin price correction.
In October 2025, Bitcoin hit a historic high of $126,080. The market then entered a correction phase, with prices gradually retreating. On February 5, 2026, Bitcoin fell to a cycle low of around $63,000, marking a nearly 50% drawdown from its peak.
Since that February low, Bitcoin has staged a sustained rebound lasting about two and a half months, rising over 20%. As of April 22, 2026, the price has stabilized above $77,000, gradually approaching the cost basis highlighted by Grayscale for recent buyers.
During this period, institutional buying has continued to support the market. Public data shows that major Bitcoin-holding firm Strategy added 34,164 BTC between April 13 and 19, 2026, bringing its total holdings to 815,061 BTC. This objective fact reflects that institutional capital did not exit during the correction, but instead chose to accumulate at relatively low levels.
Grayscale’s timing for its bottom declaration is marked by two key features: first, the price has rebounded sufficiently from the low to provide preliminary price validation; second, the cost basis for recent buyers has been retested, resulting in a substantive shift in the on-chain profit and loss structure.
Multi-Dimensional Interpretation of the Realized Price Metric
Grayscale’s methodology for identifying the bottom centers on the "realized price" on-chain valuation framework. Let’s analyze this from three perspectives: metric definition, current readings, and historical context.
Metric Definition and Calculation Logic
Realized price is a method for calculating the average cost of Bitcoin based on on-chain transfer activity. The core logic is to value each Bitcoin at the market price when it was last moved on-chain, then calculate the weighted average to establish the network-wide cost basis. Compared to market price, realized price filters out short-term speculative volatility and better reflects the true cost structure of holders, making it widely used to assess overall market profitability and cycle positioning.
Grayscale’s analysis focuses on Bitcoin transferred in the past 1 to 3 months, estimating its realized price at about $74,000. This cohort represents marginal recent buyers, and whether their cost basis is breached is highly indicative for identifying shifts in market sentiment.
Current Reading and Market Implications
As of April 22, 2026, Bitcoin’s market price is approximately $77,966.6, slightly above the $74,000 cost basis for short-term holders. This means that buyers who entered in the past three months have, on average, returned to breakeven. From a behavioral finance perspective, when holders recover from unrealized losses to near their cost basis, the urge for panic selling typically diminishes, enhancing market stability.
Grayscale’s analysis goes further: if prices continue to rise, more recent buyers will become profitable, creating positive on-chain feedback—profitable holders are more likely to hold rather than sell, reducing supply-side pressure and supporting trend continuation. This is a projection, whose validity depends on whether prices can consistently stay above the cost basis.
Historical Context and Limitations
Placing the current realized price reading in historical context reveals that this metric is not isolated. CryptoQuant analyst TeddyVision noted in an April 6, 2026, on-chain report that Bitcoin’s current price is about 25% above the network-wide realized price (around $54,000), with the MVRV ratio down to 1.24 and NUPL at 0.20.
This data highlights structural features of the current market: valuation bubbles have largely been cleared, but the network-wide average holding cost has not reached the extreme loss levels seen at historical cycle bottoms. In other words, Grayscale’s focus on the "short-term holder cost basis" has been breached, but the "network-wide cost basis" remains below the current price, meaning some long-term holders are still in profit and the market has not fully reset.
Additionally, Coinshares’ market update on April 10, 2026, indicated that digital asset investment products saw inflows for the second consecutive week, totaling about $415 million. This marks the first sustained accumulation by whale cohorts after roughly seven months of heavy distribution. This fact from the capital flow dimension provides indirect confirmation for Grayscale’s bottom call.
Fragmented Consensus and Divergent Logic on the Bottom
The most notable aspect of Grayscale’s bottom call is its clear divergence from mainstream market expectations. Let’s break down the sentiment landscape from the perspectives of supporters, opponents, and neutrals.
Convergence of On-Chain Signals and Institutional Behavior
Aside from Grayscale, some on-chain indicators also align with the bottom call. CryptoQuant Head of Research Julio Moreno noted in early April 2026 that the Bitcoin bull market index turned neutral for the first time since entering the bear market—a change historically associated with market bottoming processes.
Meanwhile, sustained institutional buying provides additional supporting evidence. Strategy’s mid-April accumulation suggests that some long-term capital views the current price range as strategically valuable. While this fact does not directly prove the bottom has been established, it at least shows that the market is not lacking buyer strength.
Dual Challenges from Cycle Frameworks and Valuation Metrics
Not all analysts agree that the bottom is behind us. Into The Cryptoverse CEO and former NASA researcher Benjamin Cowen told BeInCrypto that his baseline forecast points to October 2026 as the true bottom for this cycle. Cowen estimates the probability of this scenario at about 75%.
Cowen’s analysis is based on historical cycle symmetry: counting from the October 2025 peak (around $126,000), if historical patterns repeat, the bottom would appear roughly a year after the peak. He acknowledges the possibility of an earlier bottom, but stresses that would require "a capitulation far beyond mid-cycle historical norms."
Alphractal CEO Joao Wedson similarly believes the bottom has not yet arrived, with his fractal model predicting a low between late September and early October 2026.
CryptoQuant’s framework offers a broader time window, suggesting the Bitcoin bottom could occur between June and December 2026, with September to November being the most probable period.
Ambiguous Valuation Indicators
Some on-chain analysts argue that the market is in a "neither bottom nor top" intermediate state. CryptoQuant analyst TeddyVision points out that Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio has dropped sharply to 1.24, and NUPL to 0.20, with valuation bubbles mostly cleared. However, the price remains above the network-wide realized price, and the market has not fully reset. This viewpoint highlights a potential blind spot in Grayscale’s assessment: while the short-term holder cost basis has been breached, the broader holding structure remains fragile.
Key Divergence in the MVRV Z-score
Among all opposing arguments, the current reading of the MVRV Z-score stands out. The MVRV Z-score quantifies Bitcoin’s over- or undervaluation relative to historical averages by dividing the MVRV ratio by the standard deviation of market cap. CryptoQuant analyst Sunny Mom notes that while the metric has cooled significantly from highs, it has not entered negative (undervalued) territory. Historically, every bear market "iron bottom" for Bitcoin has coincided with the MVRV Z-score dropping below zero, whereas the current reading remains above the zero axis.
This means, from a statistical cycle perspective, market sentiment has not reached the extreme pessimism typical of cycle bottoms. CryptoQuant’s projection (a speculation) is that Bitcoin may still need to undergo a "final washout" before completing bottom formation, targeting the $55,000 to $60,000 range.
The core difference between these analytical frameworks lies in the time scale and sample group: Grayscale focuses on behavioral shifts among marginal buyers in the past 1 to 3 months, aiming to catch early trend signals; opponents look at longer-term cycle statistics and broader holding structures, preferring full historical pattern validation. Neither approach is absolutely right or wrong—they simply reflect inherent differences in analytical logic across timeframes.
Industry Impact Analysis: Structural Shifts Behind the Bottom Debate
The bottom debate between Grayscale and multiple research institutions, on the surface, is a disagreement over cycle positioning, but in reality it reflects structural changes in the crypto market’s institutionalization.
Deep Integration of Institutional Capital and On-Chain Analysis Paradigms
Grayscale’s use of realized price as the core basis for its bottom call signals that institutional-grade research has fully embraced on-chain data as a mainstream analytical tool. In the past, traditional financial institutions evaluated crypto assets mainly through macro factors and price charts, with on-chain data as supplementary reference. Now, metrics like realized price, MVRV, and NUPL are standard in institutional research. This shift has increased the sophistication of market analysis and intensified the collision of perspectives between institutions and on-chain analysts.
Divergence in Market Participant Structure
Another layer of meaning in the current bottom debate is the differentiation of interests among participants with different time horizons. Short-term traders focus more on the cost basis breakout signal highlighted by Grayscale, as it implies reduced stop-loss pressure and new rebound opportunities. Long-term allocators pay closer attention to the cycle frameworks emphasized by Cowen and CryptoQuant, since entering too early could mean facing a potential secondary bottom. This divergence objectively increases market complexity but also improves price discovery efficiency.
Narrative Competition and Market Expectation Dynamics
Whether the bottom is in is fundamentally a judgment that cannot be immediately falsified. Grayscale’s "bottom is past" narrative and the opposition’s "bottom not yet reached" narrative form the two poles of current market expectation management. From a behavioral market perspective, this narrative competition is itself a hallmark of the bottoming region—when enough participants believe the bottom is past, buying power self-reinforces and drives prices up; conversely, if most are still waiting for lower prices, rebounds are hard to sustain.
Conclusion
Grayscale’s research report on Bitcoin’s bottom provides a data-backed analytical perspective for current cycle positioning. The evolution of the realized price metric, the retesting of short-term holder cost bases, and sustained institutional inflows collectively serve as preliminary evidence for market bottoming. However, the MVRV Z-score has not entered undervalued territory, and several research institutions are still pointing to a bottom in the second half of 2026—reminding market participants to remain cautious.
The bottom is never a moment that can be precisely predicted; it’s a process that can only be fully confirmed in hindsight. Throughout this process, on-chain data offers objective tools for observation, but the way data is interpreted, the choice of metrics, and the timeframes selected all influence analytical conclusions. For market participants, the real value may not lie in debating "whether the bottom is past," but in understanding the logical assumptions behind different analytical frameworks and building their own judgment system accordingly.
