Jin10 data July 15 news, “Fed mouthpiece” Nick Timiraos comments on the U.S. June CPI data: Today’s CPI report has the characteristic of “you can choose your own interpretation angle.” The core CPI rose by 0.23% month-on-month in June, which is exactly the median of the monthly core CPI increase over the past 12 months (that is, there have been 6 months above this level and 6 months below this level). This number is slightly moderate, a bit lower than some predictors’ expectations. But the key is that most predictors believe that the more noticeable tariff effects will be seen in July and August, while June’s commodity price performance was relatively stronger. Therefore, if you originally thought that the price increase shock driven by tariffs was still ahead, this report will not change your view. Similarly, if you initially believed that the transmission of inflation would be slower and the impact smaller, then this report will not shake your existing judgment.
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