Arthur Hayes insists: Bitcoin will double to 250,000 USD by the end of the year.

Arthur Hayes, the founder of BitMEX, insists that Bitcoin will double to $250,000 within “33 days”. Behind this assertion are three forces: the liquidity of the Federal Reserve, Trump's fiscal expansion, and the demise of ETF basis trading. (Background: Bitcoin slashed from $93,000 back to $90,000! Negative funding rates indicate a high short position.) (Additional context: A young police officer in Taiwan borrowed money to invest in Bitcoin and couldn't pay it back, facing fraud charges and being searched and questioned.) Mariah Carey's Christmas song is ready to be released, but Arthur Hayes remained defiant during his appearance on the Milk Road Show Youtube program on Wednesday: Bitcoin will surge to $250,000 by the end of the year. Currently, BTC is still hovering around $90,000. Imagining a daily surge of several thousand dollars sounds absurd, but aside from the price, Arthur Hayes's argument is still worth considering. Quantitative tightening is retreating, and basis trading is disappearing. Bitcoin dropped from a high of $126,210 in October to $80,600, as Wall Street is busy digesting this 20% pullback. Arthur Hayes had already warned before Thanksgiving that it would retest the $80,000 to $85,000 range. Last week, after BTC's precise landing, it rebounded, prompting many to rethink his metaphor of the big dump being “a spring compressed to its limit.” Arthur Hayes observed two hidden forces that are flipping. He stated that the first is that the basis arbitrage positions on ETFs are gradually closing, effectively removing the heavy pressure that lowers the spot price. Once the artificial selling pressure is released, price discovery will revert to the buyers. Second, although the Federal Reserve has verbally emphasized quantitative tightening, under the tension of U.S. Treasury liquidity, the passively expanding dollar base money has begun to flow back into the market. Arthur Hayes described this as akin to an oxygen-deprived diver connecting to an oxygen tank, giving risk assets a chance to breathe. The impulsive fiscal policy of Trump and the dilemma of the Federal Reserve make the liquidity issue more complicated in the political and economic context of 2025. Trump preferred low interest rates and high asset prices after taking office, while Powell has been trying to suppress inflation. When Powell hinted that there may not be a rate cut in December, market expectations for easing plummeted from 98% to 22%, triggering a big dump correction in November. However, Arthur Hayes focuses on the balance of the U.S. Treasury's general account (TGA), believing that to accommodate government spending, the U.S. will eventually reopen the money printing machine, and the interest rate guidance is merely smoke and mirrors. Reshuffling the chips: institutional panic and whale accumulation. Last week, Bitcoin ETFs saw an outflow of $1.1 billion, indicating that traditional financial funds are hedging; however, on-chain data indicates that large holders have accumulated 375,000 BTC against the trend within 30 days. In simple terms, this could be a case of “paper hands” selling off while “diamond hands” catch the falling knife. This same script has played out multiple times in BTC's history at low points. Related reports: SpaceX transfers $100 million in Bitcoin, is Musk cashing out? Tom Lee revises Bitcoin's year-end target from $250,000 to $100,000: all I can say now is that it's possible. <Arthur Hayes stands firm: Bitcoin will double to $250,000 by the end of the year> was first published by BlockTempo, the most influential blockchain news media.