Gate Research Institute: Short-term Bitcoin investors have been in floating losses since November | Aether acquires crypto communication and media platform Coinstack

Cryptocurrency Market Overview

• BTC (-0.15% | Current price 92,511 USDT): Previously, Bitcoin faced resistance around $97,500, which weakened its rebound momentum into early 2026. The latest decline may be triggered by new tariff negotiations and structural risks in StarkNet derivatives exchanges. Currently, trading prices fluctuate between $92,900 and $93,000. The upside remains clear: $84,000 is a key support level, and Bitcoin’s primary goal is to strongly recover the $93,000–$94,000 range and establish it as a new support. If multiple attempts to break through this area fail to stabilize, it suggests that the recent strength is more likely just a temporary rebound.
• ETH (-0.58% | Current price 3,189 USDT): Since the December decline, Ethereum has shown a series of higher lows, forming a rounded accumulation pattern. The recent low is near $3,000, with prices oscillating between this support and resistance zones of $3,300 to $3,400. Meanwhile, network usage is increasing, with total transaction volume on the Ethereum chain and its 30-day EMA both trending upward, currently exceeding 2 million. However, this on-chain strength is not yet enough to be considered a bullish trend. If Ethereum can hold the $3,000 area, the short-term trend remains favorable for a rebound toward the $3,300 supply zone; otherwise, it may reopen the path to the key support at $2,800.
• Altcoins: Over the past 24 hours, altcoins have shown mixed performance, with XRP rising slightly by 0.25%, and SOL falling slightly by 0.24%. The altcoin season index stands at 26, unchanged from the previous trading day, indicating market risk appetite remains relatively low.
• Macro: On January 16, the S&P 500 index fell 0.06% to 6,940.01 points; the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.17% to 49,359.33 points; the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.06% to 23,515.39 points. As of 10:00 AM ( UTC+8) on January 20, the spot gold price is temporarily reported at $4,666 per ounce, down 0.23% within 24 hours.

Hot Tokens for Investment

ROSE Oasis Network (+34.35%, Market Cap $145 million)

According to Gate data, the ROSE token is currently priced at $0.01932, up 34.35% in 24 hours. Oasis Network is a decentralized blockchain built by Oasis Labs, dedicated to creating a blockchain-based “cloud computing platform” that balances privacy, security, and performance. Using the project’s hardware and software integration technology, it enables the first-time implementation of compute-intensive applications like artificial intelligence on the blockchain.

The rise of ROSE is driven by accelerated capital inflows into the high-elastic narrative track of “Privacy + AI.” Unlike early anonymous coins, this privacy track emphasizes compliant infrastructure, attracting institutional attention. Oasis, with Sapphire Confidential EVM and ROFL AI computing framework, positions itself within two hot narratives, becoming a core beneficiary of capital rotation when the market shifts from “Bitcoin行情” to a risk appetite-driven altcoin行情.

ARPA ARPA (+51.80%, Market Cap $18.5729 million)

According to Gate data, ARPA is currently priced at $0.00631, up 51.80% in 24 hours. ARPA Network is a flexible, easy-to-use, highly compatible computing network. ARPA provides privacy computing protocol layers for all mainstream public chains. Its high-performance privacy computing network enables enterprises to achieve multi-party data integration, data sharing, and collaborative computation of arbitrary custom functions and logic, applicable in finance, credit, marketing, and healthcare sectors.

ARPA’s recent surge mainly reflects market sentiment fluctuations, with 24-hour trading volume significantly increasing to $320 million, indicating higher market participation. The price rebounded from a low of $0.01 to a high of $0.02, a 50.75% increase, with market cap growing by $9.46 million, showing capital inflow driving the rally.

BXN Blackfort (+25.41%, Market Cap $20.2592 million)

According to Gate data, BXN is currently quoted at $0.0012869, up 25.41% in 24 hours. BlackFort is a Layer 1 EVM core blockchain focusing on scalable smart contracts, decentralized finance, and real-world asset (RWA) tokenization. BlackFort has implemented its proprietary POSA (Proof of Stake Authority) consensus algorithm. Its main strategic focus is to develop and provide innovative products and services for the community.

The rise of BXN is mainly due to community engagement and brand promotion. Between December 2025 and January 2026, a centralized exchange collaborated with BlackFort to run a Christmas calendar event, expanding BXN’s exposure in trading communities through Twitter Space interviews, community interactions, and giveaways.

Alpha Insights

Company Aether acquires crypto communications and media platform Coinstack

On January 19, Nasdaq-listed fintech group Aether Holdings’ Alpha Edge Media announced the acquisition of institutional-grade crypto communication and media platform Coinstack. The acquisition aims to expand the group’s financial content and data business. Coinstack currently has over 340,000 subscribers. The company stated that Coinstack will retain its original brand and operate independently while gaining support from Aether’s technology, analytics infrastructure, and distribution channels. Founded in December 2020, Coinstack serves global professional investors such as hedge funds, venture capital firms, family offices, and digital asset market participants, mainly providing insights into Bitcoin, Ethereum, decentralized finance, and broader blockchain market trends.

Aether states that this acquisition enhances its ongoing expansion of a media and data ecosystem focused on high engagement and institutional audiences, complementing its existing analysis, research, and content services. CEO Nicolas Lin emphasized: “Coinstack is a strategically valuable addition to Alpha Edge Media.” He highlighted the platform’s subscriber base, engagement metrics, and mature brand value, stating that the acquisition will help expand audience reach, deepen content services, and support future data-driven plans for digital assets and broader financial markets. After the acquisition, Coinstack will benefit from Aether’s technology stack and analytics capabilities, while Alpha Edge Media plans to gradually integrate Coinstack’s content and audience insights into its broader platform ecosystem. As a wholly owned subsidiary of Aether Holdings, Alpha Edge Media operates a network of financial communication and investor resources led by experts, covering public markets, digital assets, and alternative investments.

The cryptocurrency market needs ETF expansion to broaden investment scope, with leading assets driving retail attention

On January 19, Wintermute published a recent article stating that 2025 did not bring the expected market rally, but it might be seen as the beginning of cryptocurrencies shifting from speculative assets to more mature asset classes. The traditional four-year cycle pattern is failing, and market performance is no longer dominated by self-fulfilling narrative timing but depends on liquidity flows and investor focus. In 2025, there was no outflow of funds from Bitcoin to Ethereum, and then to altcoins. As retail interest shifted to stocks, the crypto market became highly centralized. The average rebound cycle of altcoins shortened to 20 days (from 60 days in 2024). A few top assets absorbed most of the new capital, while the broader market struggled.

To break the dominance of top assets, at least one of the following three conditions must occur: first, ETF and digital asset trust funds expand investment scope; second, leading assets like BTC and ETH strongly lead the rally; third, retail attention (from stocks, etc.) returns. The ultimate outcome depends on whether these catalysts can truly expand liquidity beyond a few large-cap assets or if market concentration continues to intensify. Understanding capital flow possibilities and necessary structural changes will determine the market operation logic in 2026.

Short-term Bitcoin investors have been in a floating loss since November 2025

On January 19, Glassnode posted data indicating that the STH-NUPL indicator (Short-Term Holder, new investors, measuring unrealized profit/loss relative to market cap of new investors) shows that since November 2025, new investors have been in a state of net unrealized loss. To return this group to profitability, Bitcoin’s price needs to rebound above approximately $98,000. Based on historical bear market and significant correction patterns, sustained declines during bear markets may cause these short-term holders to gradually sell at losses. During the 2018 bear market, STH-NUPL dropped to around -0.6, with many short-term players selling off, resulting in large losses, ultimately clearing speculative bubbles and marking the market bottom before a new bull run. In the 2022 bear market, STH realized record losses, and after weak hands were cleared, the price bottomed near $16,000 before entering a bull phase.

Combining these on-chain data, the current market state may be at a critical transition from correction to a new upward cycle. The loss pressure and selling behavior of short-term holders are part of the market’s self-purification process, clearing weak hands and speculative positions, laying a foundation for more stable upward movement. Historical patterns suggest that this market reset phase often creates conditions for a new cycle.
References:

• Gate, https://www.gate.com/trade/BTC_USDT
• Farside Investors, https://farside.co.uk/btc/
• Gate, https://www.gate.com/trade/ETH_USDT
• Crowdfund Insider, https://www.crowdfundinsider.com/2026/01/257487-aethers-alpha-edge-media-acquires-institutional-crypto-newsletter-coinstack/
• X, https://x.com/wintermute_t/status/2013256786359484474
• X, https://x.com/glassnode/status/2013259379340890573

Disclaimer Investing in cryptocurrencies involves high risk. Users are advised to conduct independent research and fully understand the nature of the assets and products before making any investment decisions. Gate is not responsible for any losses or damages resulting from such investment decisions.