Why can a 17% increase in fertilizer prices derail the inflation story of Bitcoin

Bitcoin investors may be watching US CPI reports, but the real inflation pressures are revealing themselves in less noticed areas.

At first glance, the inflation picture seems to be cooling down, until you look closely at the detailed data. Beef prices have surged, fertilizer costs are accelerating again, while many niche input chains are diverging in ways that don’t fit the familiar “inflation cooling” story.

For Bitcoin, this kind of “chaotic micro-inflation” could cause the market to oscillate continuously between expectations of rate cuts and fears of sustained high prices.

Divergence in beef and chicken prices, “protein tension ratio” signals inflation risk

Many price series in the Federal Reserve’s (FRED) database are diverging sharply, spanning from food, agricultural inputs, to industrial materials.

This pattern complicates the debate on inflation and growth – the fundamental factors shaping Bitcoin’s price movements.

On the consumer side, the gap between two essential proteins is widening. According to FRED, the average retail price of ground beef rose from $5,497 per pound in July 2024 to $6,687 in December 2025. During the same period, whole chicken prices only nudged from $1,988 to $2,020.

Some retail data series lack monthly observations, but when combined, the “protein tension ratio” (beef price divided by chicken price) has increased from about 2.77 to 3.31.

This change could pressure household budgets even if the overall food basket appears more stable, because shifting to chicken consumption doesn’t eliminate the high reference price of beef in a mixed diet.

The USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) also signals a similar trend. According to the food price outlook report, beef and veal prices are forecasted to rise by 11.6% in 2025 (with a forecast range of 9.5–13.8%), while poultry prices are expected to increase only about 1.9% (0.9–3.0%).

From a macro perspective, this is notable because “stubbornly high” essential goods can sustain inflation fears even as other parts of the supply chain cool down. This mix often directly impacts real yield expectations and liquidity conditions – key factors that Bitcoin traders monitor closely.

Fertilizer prices accelerate again, inflation picture becomes more tangled

Upstream, divergence is also becoming more evident. The Producer Price Index (PPI) for the fertilizer manufacturing sector increased by approximately 17.2% from July 2024 to November 2025.

Fertilizer costs tend to pass through with a lag into agricultural input costs, so the recent rise could reignite food cost pressures even if overall inflation indicators are easing.

The World Bank’s 2025 commodities outlook also considers fertilizer as an exception, forecasting a roughly 7% increase in fertilizer prices for the year, with urea rising about 15%.

Academic research has shown that shocks in the fertilizer market can spill over into broader price pressures and reduce profit margins in agriculture.

However, not all links move in the same direction. Production costs for processed meat by-products fell about 21.8% during the same period, while lard and non-food fats increased by roughly 8.9%.

This indicates internal supply chain tensions, where some output prices are being squeezed, while input costs are driven higher by policy factors.

Rigid industrial pipeline prices, while chemicals and inputs cool down

This divergence partly reflects the impact of biofuel channels, especially renewable diesel, which increasingly considers animal fats as an energy input.

Beyond food, price chains tied to physical goods are tightening, even as broader industrial inputs cool. Cardboard box prices surged about 9.35% from July 2024 to November 2025, possibly due to more stable shipment volumes, higher packaging costs, or both. This often signals an upcoming shift before consumer stories fully adjust.

Scrap copper prices also rose about 9.0% in the same period, reflecting demand from construction, manufacturing, and electrification projects.

Conversely, industrial chemicals prices fell roughly 6.1%, aligning with easing inflation pressures in manufacturing and/or weakening intermediate demand.

Prices in discretionary consumer chains are also softening. Raw leather and leather goods from slaughterhouses declined about 26.5%, linked to end markets like automotive and footwear. This trend typically appears when non-essential consumer demand stalls or when substitutes for synthetic materials emerge more quickly.

Three macro scenarios emerging, Bitcoin may trade more on liquidity than story

For macro watchers, this is yet another sign that growth could slow even as some essential goods and inputs remain “stubbornly high” in price.

Current signals suggest three plausible scenarios over the next two to three quarters – a critical period for Bitcoin through real yields and liquidity.

If protein and fertilizer prices continue to pressure inflation expectations, while chemicals remain weak, markets may oscillate between inflation risk and growth risk. In this environment, Bitcoin is likely to depend more on liquidity conditions than any single story.

If growth factors dominate, evidenced by prolonged weakness in chemicals, leather, and cooling packaging prices, expectations of rate cuts could be reinforced, leading to looser financial conditions. Historically, this environment tends to support Bitcoin much better than high-beta risk assets when liquidity expands.

Conversely, if input inflation returns via fertilizer, packaging, and metals, while protein prices stay high, the inflation hedge story could re-emerge. In that case, higher real yields would remain a drag on risk positions.

One final complex factor: data itself becomes part of the macro story

Retail food price data on FRED shows many observations missing toward the end of 2025 for certain items. USDA ERS also states that the October–December 2025 food outlook estimates will not be published and will only be updated on 01/23/2026, after the December CPI and PPI data are released in January 2026.

This means investors must interpret signals not only from the data but also consider gaps and delays in the data’s influence on macro expectations and Bitcoin trading strategies.

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