On Polymarket, the probability of a BlackRock executive succeeding as Federal Reserve Chair is close to 50%, while the probability of former board member Kevin Warsh drops to 28%.

GateNews

2026-01-26 03:33:29

ChainCatcher reports that, according to Polymarket data, the implied probability of Federal Reserve successor Rieder, Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income at BlackRock, is 47%, higher than former Federal Reserve Board member Kevin Warsh at 28%, current Federal Reserve Board member Christopher Waller at 9%, and White House National Economic Council Kevin Hassett at 8%.

The total trading volume for this event exceeded $250 million. The chart shows that Rieder’s pricing curve accelerated in January and surpassed competitor Kevin Warsh on January 23.

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