Bitcoin price drops below $88,000: government shutdown risk soars, BTC faces a new round of macro shocks

January 26 News, against the backdrop of the rapidly escalating risk of a US government shutdown, Bitcoin prices came under pressure over the weekend, breaking below the $88,000 mark and touching a low of approximately $87,158. As market risk aversion spreads, crypto assets experienced a synchronized pullback, with Ethereum also dipping into the $2,800 range, indicating that macroeconomic uncertainty is dominating short-term trends.

Polymarket data shows that the probability of a US government shutdown has risen to about 75%, due to a political deadlock in Congress over spending limits and Department of Homeland Security funding. Reports from US media indicate that some Democratic lawmakers threaten to block the passage of related bills, further fueling market concerns over a disruption in fiscal operations. Presto Research analyst Rick Maeda stated that the recent Bitcoin decline is mainly driven by macro risk-avoidance sentiment rather than internal negative news within the crypto industry.

As prices weaken, the derivatives market shows clear signs of deleveraging. According to CoinGlass, over the past 24 hours, forced liquidations in the crypto market exceeded $250 million, with longs making up the majority. Trader CrypNuevo pointed out that around $86,300 is considered a key support zone for current BTC; if this level is broken, the price could retest the lower $80,000 area, which is a scenario many investors monitoring “Bitcoin technical support levels” are wary of.

The funding environment also signals caution. According to SoSoValue data, as of the week ending January 23, US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced net outflows of about $1.33 billion, marking the worst performance since February 2025. Kronos Research Chief Investment Officer Vincent Liu believes that although the outflows reflect short-term risk aversion, some institutions are still selectively investing in crypto infrastructure and leading companies, indicating that recognition of Bitcoin’s long-term value has not disappeared.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision on January 28. CME Group’s FedWatch tool shows only about a 2.8% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut, with the market generally expecting rates to remain unchanged. President Trump has recently called for further easing policies, and investors will also focus on upcoming US PPI data to gauge inflation and monetary policy directions. For Bitcoin, ETF capital flows and key price levels will continue to influence the short-term trend.