The probability of a US government shutdown this Saturday on Polymarket has significantly decreased

BlockBeats News, January 29 — According to The New York Times and Polymarket forecast data:

  1. Negotiation Progress: U.S. President Trump and Senate Minority Leader Schumer are negotiating to prevent a government shutdown. The preliminary plan proposes to separate the Department of Homeland Security funding legislation from the appropriations bill, while the remaining bills funding the military and health programs are expected to pass before the Friday midnight deadline.

  2. Temporary Measures: Congress will consider short-term funding extensions for the Department of Homeland Security to prevent service disruptions and buy time for drafting new legislation.

  3. Market Forecast: Driven by positive negotiations, Polymarket forecast data shows that as of 12:54 on January 29, 2026, the probability of a U.S. government shutdown this Saturday has sharply dropped to 40%, with a daily decline of 29%. (Jin10)

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