Gate Daily (February 2): Bitcoin sell-off causes IBIT yield to turn negative; FTX announces new round of payouts starting at the end of March

Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a slight rebound after the weekend crash, currently around $77,400 as of February 2. US President Trump announced the nomination of Kevin Waugh as the next Federal Reserve Chair, which triggered volatility and declines in risk assets. The Bitcoin sell-off caused the dollar-weighted yield of BlackRock’s IBIT to turn negative. FTX stated that the next round of fund distribution is expected on March 31, with total claims approximately $9.6 billion.

Macro Events & Crypto Hotspots

1. According to the dollar-weighted return data shared by Chief Investment Officer Bob Elliott of Unlimited Funds, the recent Bitcoin sell-off may have pushed the total investor holdings of BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) into negative territory. Data from Elliott Securities shows that as of the end of January, the cumulative dollar-weighted investor return was slightly below zero, reflecting the impact of Bitcoin’s price plunge over the weekend. The data indicates that while early IBIT investors may still be profitable, large inflows at high prices have pulled the overall dollar-weighted return below zero.

2. FTX creditor representative Sunil posted on X platform that the next round of fund distribution is expected on March 31, with total claims around $9.6 billion, including: claims under $50,000 about $780 million, claims over $50,000 about $7.8 billion, and non-customer claims about $1 billion. Sunil also pointed out that the dispute reserve has decreased by about $2.2 billion, and if an additional $2 billion is distributed later, claims over $50,000 could receive approximately $1.7 billion in additional payouts. Overall, FTX creditor recovery progress continues, with subsequent distribution pace depending on dispute claim handling and asset liquidation.

News Highlights

1. CrossCurve announces 10 “hacker” addresses, calls for repayment and offers a 10% bounty.

2. The author of “Rich Dad Poor Dad”: Prepare to buy during the gold, silver, and Bitcoin market crashes.

3. “1011 Insider Whale” deposits 15,000 ETH into CEX, accumulating over 120,000 ETH in two days.

4. Cross-chain liquidity protocol CrossCurve was attacked due to a smart contract vulnerability, resulting in theft of approximately $3 million.

5. Michael Saylor releases Bitcoin Tracker again, possibly revealing increased holdings next week.

6. FTX creditor representative Sunil: Next fund distribution expected on March 31, with total claims around $9.6 billion.

7. Vitalik Buterin: Creator tokens have limited incentive effects; the core issue is insufficient quality content filtering.

8. US House Speaker: Confident of securing enough votes to end partial government shutdown by Tuesday.

9. Data: Tokens like HYPE, BERA, XDC will undergo large unlocks this week, with HYPE unlock value around $305 million.

Market Trends

1. Latest Bitcoin news: $BTC rebounded slightly after weekend crash, currently around $77,400, with $154 million in liquidations in the past 24 hours, mainly long positions.

2. Major US indices closed lower on January 30, with the Nasdaq Composite leading the decline, ending down 0.9%. After President Trump announced the nomination of Kevin Waugh as the next Fed Chair, uncertainty about future monetary policy caused US stocks to fall. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average each dropped 0.4% last Friday, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunging 3.9%.

(Source: Gate)

3. According to Gate’s BTC/USDT liquidation map, with the current price at $77,904.80, if it drops to around $75,689, the total long liquidation exceeds $470 million; if it rises to around $79,539, the total short liquidation exceeds $1.27 billion. Short positions are significantly more liquidated than longs. It is advised to control leverage reasonably to avoid large-scale liquidations during market volatility.

(Source: Coinglass)

4. In the past 24 hours, spot inflow was $2.56 billion, outflow $2.63 billion, resulting in a net outflow of $70 million.

(Source: Coinglass)

5. Over the past 24 hours, contract trading net outflows led by $RIVER, $DOT, $ZEC, $我踏馬而來, $ZK, indicating potential trading opportunities.

Selected Opinions from X KOLs

Phyrex Ni (@Phyrex_Ni): “Today I hardly looked at the market, just focus on two key times: one is in the morning Asia time after yesterday’s big drop—whether to buy the dip, follow the sell-off, or stay indifferent. It seems most chose to stay indifferent, then watch the US stock market open in the evening. Although it hasn’t opened, Saturday’s decline started at the same time. If by the end of Sunday it’s almost over, then I start to be optimistic.”

“Same two times, Asian investors start work on Monday, and US stock futures open—whether it continues to fall depends on market sentiment. If US stocks keep dropping, many worry Bitcoin will follow. But from my perspective, BTC already dropped before US stocks over the weekend, so a big decline now would be surprising.”

“The severe weekend drop is also due to liquidity reasons. After working hours, liquidity increases, and buying power rises. Yesterday, I calculated that the average buy-in price for spot ETFs is around $75,000. Miners with machines costing over 200 W/T are almost all shut down, even MSTR’s machines with costs above $76,000 are of interest.”

“Looking at Bitcoin data, Sunday’s turnover rate was still quite high compared to the weekend, indicating that the second day of price fluctuation still causes panic among some short-term investors. The market’s reaction on Monday will be crucial. Especially since there was a small pause on Monday, but the impact was minor, and the market expects it to end by Tuesday. So, no further negative news from politics.”

“This decline was triggered by Microsoft; fund managers’ cash positions might be the last straw. If these two factors are correct, the downside for US stocks is limited, as no systemic risk has appeared. AI narratives remain strong.”

Today’s Outlook

1. France January Manufacturing PMI Final, previous 51.0

2. Germany January Manufacturing PMI Final, previous 48.7

3. Eurozone January Manufacturing PMI Final, previous 49.4

4. UK January Manufacturing PMI (Final), previous 51.6

5. US January ISM Manufacturing PMI, previous 47.9

6. US November Construction Spending (MoM), previous 0.5%