Gate CBO: The β value can explain Bitcoin's past correlations, while the α value determines Bitcoin's future.
Odaily Planet Daily reports that Gate CBO Kevin Lee commented on Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood’s core view that “Bitcoin’s low β value has both offensive and defensive attributes.” A specialized analysis pointed out that Bitcoin’s long-term value is unrelated to its β value; the core lies in its unique commercialization path and network effects.
Kevin Lee stated that Bitcoin returns are not driven by a single risk factor but are jointly influenced by structural factors such as network expansion, increased institutional participation, improved compliance infrastructure, and on-chain application deployment. Its attributes dynamically shift with market conditions: during macro shocks, it exhibits risk asset characteristics; during technological iteration and adoption rate increases, Bitcoin releases non-systematic excess returns, i.e., α.
He emphasized that β and α values are estimated using linear regression models, which are affected by data intervals and statistical frequency, making it difficult to objectively define Bitcoin’s true risk-return structure. While models can explain its historical performance, they cannot constrain Bitcoin’s future. The current Bitcoin network is still expanding, and its risk-return structure continues to evolve. This dynamic growth and uniqueness are at the core of its long-term allocation value and confirm the investment logic that “proportional inclusion in a portfolio can optimize the efficient frontier.”
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