Ben Cowen warns: M2 turning point may be approaching, and Bitcoin bullish macro fundamentals face reversal risk

Cryptocurrency analyst Ben Cowen recently questioned the popular market view that “liquidity easing will once again push Bitcoin higher.” He believes that many macro bulls overly rely on the assumption that global M2 money supply will continue to expand, but actual data may be pointing in the opposite direction.

Ben Cowen pointed out that M2 may not continue to rise from current levels and could instead peak and decline in the coming months. This judgment aligns with expectations of a potential strengthening of the US dollar. Historically, Bitcoin’s cycle peaks tend to lead M2, while price lows often occur shortly after M2 peaks. Therefore, if M2 is about to enter a decline phase, liquidity conditions in the crypto market could come under pressure.

He also emphasized that the US benchmark interest rate is currently higher than the two-year US Treasury yield, indicating that policy stance remains tight. The lack of clear signals of rate cuts in the short term makes the narrative of “liquidity flowing back into risk assets” seem overly optimistic. Meanwhile, employment-related indicators continue to weaken, with hiring, job openings, and resignation rates all at low levels. Historically, unemployment tends to rise in summer, adding to macroeconomic uncertainty.

On the stock market front, the S&P 500 is approaching record highs, further limiting the Federal Reserve’s room to inject liquidity. Ben Cowen also mentioned that past quantitative tightening does not necessarily lead to a rise in crypto assets; the experience in 2019 proved that the end of balance sheet reduction does not automatically trigger a bull market.

In response to accusations that the bearish view “ignores macro factors,” he countered that macro data itself has multiple interpretations. A strong dollar, high interest rates, cooling employment, and high stock valuations are the core reasons for his cautious stance. Combining the historical rhythm of Bitcoin and M2, Ben Cowen believes the market should prepare for longer periods of volatility.