Is the XRP price rebound a false signal? On-chain data warns: the real bottom may still be in a lower zone

On February 6, news reports indicate that after a 24-hour sharp decline, XRP’s price quickly rebounded from around $1.11 to the $1.30 level, prompting market discussions about whether the bottom has been reached. However, based on historical cycles and on-chain data, this rebound appears more like a technical correction rather than a trend reversal signal.

Recently, XRP broke below the long-term downtrend channel formed since mid-2025 and temporarily lost the “Realized Price”—a key cost basis (currently around $1.47). This indicator represents the average holding cost of all circulating tokens. When the current price is below this level, most holders are at a loss. In mid-2022, XRP also fell below this line but did not immediately reverse; instead, it traded sideways below it for nearly two years until a strong rally at the end of 2024.

The current discount margin, while not as severe as in previous declines, still ranges from 18% to 25%. This indicates that market pressure is building but has not yet fully cleared sentiment. The long-term holder NUPL has dropped to about -0.19, showing that most long-term holdings are in loss territory. Historically, cycle bottoms often require this indicator to decline further before stabilizing.

On-chain behavior also leans cautious. Since early February, the Spent Output Age indicator, which measures dormant token activity, has surged significantly, indicating large amounts of long-held tokens are moving. Such phenomena typically occur during distribution phases rather than genuine accumulation zones. Even after the price rebound, this indicator remains high, suggesting selling pressure has not been fully released.

Structurally, XRP is still operating below the broken channel. The next key support level is around $0.93; if this area is lost, historical support could shift down to $0.52. On the upside, only regaining above $1.47 would help restore market confidence, with medium-term improvement requiring a break above $1.69 and $1.97.

Until token liquidity cools and on-chain losses are gradually absorbed, any rebound may face new selling pressure. The market still needs patience for a true structural reset.