Bitunix Analyst: Declining Data Credibility Amplifies Macro Noise, BTC Rebound Validates Risk Tolerance

BlockBeats News, February 9 — As key macroeconomic data delays its release and the annual benchmark revision approaches, market concerns about “whether the data remains forward-looking” have rapidly intensified. The January non-farm payroll report has been postponed to Wednesday, along with an update to the 2025 annual revision figures. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics previously indicated that employment growth from April 2024 to March 2025 was overestimated by approximately 911,000 people; internal assessments by U.S. banks and the Federal Reserve suggest that the potential downward revision of monthly new jobs in the second half of 2025 could be about 20,000 to 60,000, implying that the total new jobs for the year might be only around 584,000, the weakest level since the pandemic.

Cross-market performance shows a divergence in capital sentiment. Last week, U.S. stocks rebounded after consecutive declines, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average briefly surpassing 50,000 points. During the same period, U.S. Treasury yields fell and safe-haven buying returned, reflecting that market confidence in risk assets has not truly recovered. Precious metals experienced increased volatility, and oil prices surged then retreated amid geopolitical news, further amplifying macroeconomic uncertainty.

The crypto market responded even more directly. BTC briefly dropped to $59,800 on February 6, then quickly rebounded to the $71,000 range, indicating that structural support still exists at lower levels. However, from a risk pricing perspective, this appears more like a technical correction after deleveraging rather than a sign of a new risk appetite revival. Caution is needed to see if the $71,363 level can be effectively reclaimed, as this area corresponds to a key structural level from the previous decline and will be an important reference for whether capital is willing to re-engage with risk.

In the context of simultaneous “high uncertainty and low credibility” in non-farm and CPI data, short-term market pricing logic has shifted from focusing on the quality of individual data points to a comprehensive assessment of policy space, data revision risks, and liquidity tolerance. BTC’s trend will mainly reflect changes in this macro risk appetite, rather than serving as an independent market signal.