MSTR crashes 72% from its all-time high! Investment banks call for "buy" but slash target prices by 61%

As Bitcoin’s decline intensifies, the world’s largest publicly traded Bitcoin holder—Strategy (NYSE: MSTR)—also cannot escape the bloodbath, with its stock price plunging again on Wednesday, reaching a low of $121.19 during trading, causing analysts to adopt a more cautious stance and revise their price targets downward.
In a research report released on Wednesday, Joseph Vafi, an analyst at Canaccord Genuity, a Canadian investment bank long considered Strategy’s “strong bull” supporter, sharply cut the target price from $474 to $185, a decrease of 61%. However, intriguingly, Joseph Vafi still maintains a “Buy” rating on Strategy.
Earlier today (5), Bitcoin briefly dipped close to $70,000, hitting its lowest point since October 2024; Strategy’s stock price tumbled about 9% on Wednesday to $121.19, with a year-to-date decline of 15%. Compared to its all-time high in November 2024, it has plummeted 72%.
Vafi stated that Bitcoin is still viewed as a long-term store of value in narrative, but its recent trend increasingly resembles high-risk assets like tech stocks. Amid geopolitical risks and turbulent macroeconomic conditions, gold prices have surged, yet Bitcoin has failed to benefit in tandem, unable to keep pace with safe-haven assets.
He pointed out that the crypto market flash crash in October last year triggered widespread forced liquidations, and the selling pressure from that event still lingers, indicating that Bitcoin remains highly dependent on market liquidity rather than safe-haven demand.
Notably, Vafi only raised Strategy’s target price to $474 in November last year; now, he has significantly revised it downward. Nonetheless, he still assigns a new target of $185, implying more than 40% upside potential compared to the previous day’s closing price of $129.09.
Vafi’s valuation assumptions are based on two premises: first, that Bitcoin’s price rebounds approximately 20% from its lows; second, that Strategy’s net asset value multiple (mNAV) recovers to about 1.25 times.
The report states that Strategy’s overall financial structure is designed to withstand high volatility. The company currently holds over $44 billion in Bitcoin assets, with convertible bonds totaling about $8 billion, including a $1 billion bond maturing in 2027 that is currently in-the-money.
Regarding dividend payments on preferred stock, Vafi believes that even if Strategy’s mNAV premium has significantly narrowed, the company can manage this by slightly issuing more shares, which does not pose a structural risk in the short term.